Panic In Detroit: In case you didn’t know, next year's Superbowl is slated to be held in the Motor City. Apparently, if you build a new stadium for your football team, the NFL rewards you by scheduling a future Superbowl so you can so it off. It doesn’t matter how pathetic your infrastructure is, or how incompetent your city management. Here are some comments on the Jacksonville Superbowl from a UPI article that struggles mightily to make the best of things:

Sportswriters and sportscasters on expense accounts complained there weren't enough good restaurants. Restaurant operators in the downtown area complained there weren't enough customers.

The visitors said it was more fun in New Orleans. Nothing shocking about that.

Traffic at times suffered gridlock. Finding a taxi was almost impossible because Jacksonville, a city of 1.2 million people, doesn't have very many.

And hotel rooms were hard to find despite importing six cruise ships to provide more lodging for people in town for the game and its man side events.

Folks, you ain't seen nothing yet. You think you're going to find cabs in Detroit? Mass transit? Good restaurants? There are 1.2 million people in Jacksonville and pretty much anywhere you go in Florida there is at least some tourist support, witness the emergency cruise ship assistance. Detroit had to hunt for people ot fill out census documents to keep itself over a million in population a few years ago and it gets lower everyday. No low level tourist infrastructure, less general infrastructure.

As long as I have been alive Detroit as been rebuilding. I have come to be suspicious of the notion that there was ever anything to rebuild from. I suspect the whole rebuilding thing was a concept invented at the city's founding by the French to convince settlers not to flee to Montreal. Some things never change:

Next year's Super Bowl will be played in Detroit where the mission will be to show that its reputation for Rust Belt decline is not deserved.

Detroit has done a downtown makeover much in the way Jacksonville did, and most of the other chores are well under way. The makeover is costing $200 million, but it won't be completed by the time Super Bowl XL rolls around next Feb. 5 in the downtown area's new Ford Field.

Snicker. Now the foul-ups begin in earnest. Just for good measure:

It will be the second Super Bowl for Detroit. The first was Super Bowl XVI after the 1981 season. That one was marred by a game-day ice storm that bollixed traffic in the area of the Silver Dome for hours.

Snicker, snicker. And you want to talk hotel rooms? The perfect symbol of Detroit is the Hotel Pontchatrain. I remember from my childhood this place being the ultimate in class and elegance in downtown Detroit. It had a famous rooftop restaurant (Top of the Pontch) and a great reputation for panache. No doubt is was a symbol of Detroit's rebirth back in the 60s. Now read review at Fodors or Yahoo. They include quotes like, "The manager was downright nasty, the front desk person twisted our dissatisfaction around alleging it was personal!", and "In our entire lives this would be the second worst hotel we have ever stayed in" and "Its your money, save it, sleep at a campground", and "worst hotel in US".

Still, the Superbowl is coming, they should be able to fill all the downtown rooms at exorbitant prices when the time comes, no matter how offensive the property and staff. Well, obviously the current owners don’t want to give it a try because the current owners have put the hotel up for auction.

Let's consider that. The area is in the midst of a 200 million dollar restoration. The Superbowl is coming within walking distance. And there won’t be any emergency Cruise ships on the Detroit river. It's just an incredible opportunity for a landmark hotel; once in a lifetime. How could you not get rich? And yet, the current owners want out. One of the Pontch reviewers at Yahoo sums up why:

For those who haven't been to Detroit, here's a summary: Take chicago, board up the first floors of all the buildings downtown, cover the city with a fine layer of filth and pigeon feathers, set a bunch of cars on fire and leave them gutted out as public installations, put scaffolding on everything and leave it for years, allow the cabbies to drink on the job and turn their meters off to jack customers, then make 1/2 the city unemployed.

I would have added "remove all forms of recreational activity and reduce the El to one car which only follows the loop and only goes five miles per hour." That's Detroit. The current owners of the Pontch understand that all the Superbowls in the world aren’t going to change that.

But there will always be people to trumpet how Detroit is rebuilding. They may do this because it is in their financial interest to do so or the may do it out of naivete or they may do it out of abject stupidity, but they will continue to do it.

No sense in being disgusted, might as well be amused. Be forewarned, I am going to be riding the Detroit-Superbowl-Fiasco topic like a mechanical bull in a redneck bar for the next year.

Quickies: The usual random link overflow.

• Is the CTX is the new Hummer? Maybe the new Viagra is more appropriate. The CTX, a giant truck, is being snatched up by at least one Hollywood type. In the future the Chevy Suburban will be an economy car.


• The divine Bellagio has installed a working fountain of melted chocolate. No word on whether they have hired the Oompa Loompas to maintain it. I love that town.


• Where those in the know are traveling, according to the Times of London -- a rather dubious list. Devon in the UK? And don’t get me started on the Dream Hotel in New York.


• A more interesting location in the UK is Battersea, the power station complex that was featured on the cover of Pink Floyd's Animals. Seems they are turning it into an upscale shopping mall with a boutique hotel and stylish residences also planned. All late '70s potheads are hereby called on for a pilgrimage to Battersea for a ritual flying of a pig shaped balloon.


• Better is Islands Magazine list of the 20 most beautiful islands as reproduced at Gadling. I have been to exactly zero of these places. My lameness is profound.


• This is sweet. American Airlines is set to provide a personal media player on its flights. For $7.95 you get your choice of 12 films, games, music, etc. Sign me up. Especially considering they currently charge $5 to plug into the armrest to hear your choice of 8 unlistenable pre-fab music feeds.


• A fine five part article on Bohemian New York. A bit haphazard but very pleasant reading. Save it for your lunch hour.

Going Nowhere: I have been stymied lately on the direction of my yet to be born third novel, Misspent Youth, so I decided I would go back to the beginning and start revising in the hopes of catching a rhythm to carry me forward. Bad idea. I decided I hate it. Not the story, just some of the writing. So I sat down tonight to start revising and an hour and a half later, I had gotten through page 4. I am now despairing of ever finishing it. I have to keep in mind that all work on it is progress and that despair and doubt are part of the process of good writing.

I know all this. I have been through it before. I'll make it through. Won't I?

Anyway, a couple of tidbits to share. First, my review of The Whole Wide World is up over at Blogcritics.

Second, I was going through my pictures from my last trip to South Beach and I have come to the conclusion that my camera is incapable of taking decent night shots. Just like the pictures I took in Vegas, every one of the night pictures was too blurry to be of any use. I tried all the different settings and I made efforts to brace myself to keep steady and they are still severely out of focus. It is a situation worth investigating if I ever have the time. For now just let me share the one picture that is worth sharing from that trip to prove I can take a decent picture. It is the view from the rooftop pool of the Bentley Hotel where I stayed. It wasn't that warm, but it sure looks it.

A New Paris Hilton?: Anna Benson, former stripper and wife of New York Mets pitcher Kris Benson, appears to be on the Paris Hilton career track.

She first came to fame through an appearance on Howard Stern wherein she declared that if her husband ever cheated on her, she would proceed to work her way through servicing his entire roster of teammates (no mention of the coaching staff, management or hot dog vendors) as a form of vengeance. The Mets have had some success with free agent signings this year, although the connection is speculative.

She subsequently claimed she was only kidding, stating:

I've been saying that comment for about six years now. We couldn't believe it turned into such a big deal. We laughed it up. There's no way I would touch some of those guys with a 10-foot pole. I don't care what Kris did. Some of them are disgusting.

Way to save the situation, Anna!

In the midst of all this, she has been pitching a reality series based on her home life as the wife a major league ballplayer. It's no Simple Life, but it's a start.

Most recently, she was seen having a diva moment over not being provided VIP status at a Ludacris concert at the Sundance Film Festival. Her tenacity paid off however:

Despite the valiant efforts of the folks at the door to enforce status discipline, Benson ended up in the VIP area anyway, along with Rocco DiSpirito, Carmen Electra and Snoop Dogg's sidekick, Bishop Don Magic Juan [and, presumably, Mohammed, Jugdish, Sidney, and Clayton].

Still, in this case, I'm on Anna's side. She's just trying to get the same deferential respect that any wife of a pitcher with a career 4.28 ERA and a 47-53 record deserves.

What's the next step for Anna? Clearly, a home made porn video. It could be with hubby Kris or one or more of his (non-disgusting) teammates. But I'm hoping she goes for a teammate's wife. Specifically teammate Mike Piazza's wife, ex-playmate and Baywatch babe, Alicia Richter. But that's just me.

So here's wishing Anna the best of luck in her pursuit of fame without demonstrable talent. You reach for that star, girl. And when we see a South Park episode entitled "Not Another Stupid Spoiled Whore", we'll know you made it.

Dead Calm: I don’t seem to be able to get motivated to do much of anything these days. Read, write, travel, troll the web for post fodder -- just can’t find any enthusiasm for it. Instead, I have been cleaning bathrooms and doing laundry and such. Life on the edge.

A group of my friends is trying to get me to start training for a 100 mile bike race (a "century") around Lake Tahoe in June. It's called America's Most Beautiful Ride. It's certainly appealing; I'm sure it would be a lot of fun, but they are all doing it as part of Team-in-Training, a fairly prominent group that collects pledges for Leukemia and Lymphoma research. Apparently the deal is that if you raise $3800 in pledges Team-in-Training covers your hotel room and ships your bike out west and does a few other sorts of things. My problem is that there is no way I could raise $3800. Most of the people I would ask would be the other ones I was training with so that's out. My company has a donation matching policy, but it only covers things educational, community and cultural charities, not diseases (weird). A shame because if they matched it, I would have just paid half myself and been done with it. So I don’t know what to do. The ride is appealing; I could do my own training and make my own arrangements, I suppose, but that doesn't seem like it's in the spirit of the thing.

Johnny Carson, R.I.P.: Johnny Carson died, which you certainly know by now. Personally, I blame Johnny Carson for my utter failure as a morning person. Throughout my early childhood, I remember staying up to see the monologue, so it was near midnight before I went to sleep, even at a very young age. The pattern was set. Not that I completely understood everything. But that was Johnny Carson's special appeal. He really wasn't that funny or thoughtful, apart from a few clever quips now and then. He was somewhat magnetic and utterly genial, like a dependable neighbor. My Mom used to tell me that she thought one of the reasons FDR kept getting re-elected was that he had a most profound, fatherly quality of making it seem like everything was going to be all right. I'm guessing Johnny Carson was similar. He was there every night (at least until the later years), everybody loved him (including all those famous Hollywood types), and despite always playing it safe he never seemed out of touch or square. The golf swing, the "How hot was it?", the Tea-for-Two dance step -- you knew that the day was a day like any other, and you were about to go to sleep and have another one tomorrow.

I'm guessing his appeal was part and parcel with his personality, which manifested itself in him simply calling it quits and never reappearing. No matter how rich and famous he got, he was really still the dependable neighbor. So when he stopped doing his show, he just stopped being famous. Probably his greatest quality was understanding that fame is the most empty of achievements. Show me another celebrity who understands that.

As for me, I still stay up later than I should, but now it's to watch Family Guy reruns on Adult Swim. Sidesplitting.

Chow Down: Despite my malaise I did manage to visit a couple of new(ish) Ann Arbor eateries lately. So here are a couple of recommendations for the homeys.

First, for the best Italian sub in town you must go to Dibella's. This is a New York outfit that recently expanded here. You won’t find the variety or pseudo-healthy options that you will at Subway or Quizno's, but the spiced up olive oil and marinated sweet peppers make up for that. Great bread too. Treat yourself once in a while. On the corner of Eisenhower and Ann Arbor-Saline in the shopping center where Pier One is.

Second, for fine dining, you should give Eve a try. Very innovative food and drink -- espresso martini, nachos based on fried wontons, amazing chocolate desserts. It's very stylish and somewhat on the small side, so you may want to think about reservations. Downside: the service is friendly, but not the fastest, and the prices are on the upper end. Still I would not hesitate to visit again. They serve a fine, refreshing Mojito (a drink I came to like last time I was in Miami Beach), and on Thursday the set out free appetizers after 9 at the bar. Located in Kerrytown -- where the Kerrytown Bistro used to be -- it's a good option to the usual suspects down around Main Street.

Status Memo: I have finally shaken my illness (hoping not to jinx myself by writing this). And there was a loud Hosannah!

Carnivale has started its new season on HBO and it's not looking particularly appealing yet. Iron Chef America also stared on the Food Network, but while it made me very hungry (Bobby Flay makes some crimainally tasty looking stuff), it was a bit low on campy fun compared to its Japanese counterpart. Basically, the most compelling thing on TV is the reruns of Deadwood, leading up the 2nd season premier in March. The dialog still mesmerizes me, profanity and all.

So with no TV to distract me, you would think I would have had one of the most productive times of my life, but no. Between my decidedly unproductive holiday season and my need to sleep 13 hours a day, when not coughing up lung fragments, I find myself approximately right where I was in late December. A lost month. What the hell happened? Annoying, because I have so much to do. Depressing, because I just don’t have an unlimited supply of months left.

Readings and Writings: I am near to finishing my review of The Whole Wide World by Yvonne Castaneda, which I was supposed to finish over the holidays.

My next project was supposed to be a film/book comparison for Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World. I think I previously mentioned that I found the movie to be a remarkable piece of drama, especially in the manner in which it covered so much ground in so short a time without short changing anything important. My plan was to barrel through two books in the Patrick O'Brian series -- Master and Commander the first book, for a solid grounding in the characters, then The Far Side of the World, which was much further on in the series. Following that I would then provide brilliant analysis and insights about how the written stories were converted to film.

Two problems. 1) These are not books you "barrel through". They are not difficult reads, but they are exacting in sentence form and strucutre; well steeped in early 19th century vocabulary and sailing terms. Impressively, they are not boring or tedious about their topic. They are very character driven which is a saving grace. And 2) I have come to learn the books and movie hold virtually no relationship in plot, only characters. That pretty much sinks my plans. I'll finish at least the first book, and I suppose I could review both the movie and the book separately. But I'm not sure I'd have anything new to say about them, so what's the point?

On the Strip: Fun (and funny) stuff going on in Vegas. First, I may have mentioned before that Hooters is opening a theme hotel in the location of the old, and not likely to be missed, San Remo. It makes me giggle every time I think of it. Imagine the housekeeping uniforms.

Second, it's interesting to see that Planet Hollywood is taking over the Aladdin hotel and remaking it in its image. It's a joint venture with Sheraton, so at least they'll have some folks around who know the hotel biz. (Didn’t Planet Hollywood go bankrupt a couple of years ago?) No doubt this has potential to be a hit in the Hard Rock vein. I'd give it a try.

Third, the most hyped and anticipated property on in the history of the strip, Wynn Las Vegas, is scheduled to open in May and is already 100% booked for a full year. Wynn is the brainchild of Steve Wynn, who years ago, ushered out the Rat Pack and ushered in the new mega-resort Vegas with the opening of the Mirage, then set the bar higher with the opening of the Bellagio, both of which now belong to the MGM Group. The genius of Wynn Las Vegas is the attached golf course, the only one on the strip, thus making it attractive to both inveterate gamblers and inveterate golfers. Brilliant. I don’t golf, but I would give the tip of my left pinkie to be staying there for the opening.

Speaking of MGM, their latest plan for one-ups-manship is Project City Center which "will include the development of 18 million square feet of space consisting of a 4,000-room hotel/casino, three 400-room boutique hotels to be operated by world-famous hoteliers not currently represented in Las Vegas, approximately 550,000 square feet of retail shops, dining and entertainment venues, and 1,650 units of luxury condominium, hotel/condominium and private residence clubs." Sheesh.

In a weird way, the most interesting development is that Vivid Entertainment is opening a nightclub in the Venetian. You probably don’t know this, and don’t ask how I know, but Vivid Entertainment is one of the largest purveyors of pornography in the world. What's strange about this is that The Venetian is really one of the classiest places in Vegas. It's a little hokey with the gondoliers and such, but it's more over to the Disney side of the spectrum -- no topless revues, relatively modest costumes of the waitresses. The Venetian is where you find the Guggenheim, and Canyon Ranch for Pete's sake. I'm going to be interested to see if this is an attempt by the Venetian to spice things up, or an attempt by the porn merchants to go legit. (Let's face it, had they opened their club in Hooter's Hotel they would get no legitimacy points.)

It's estimated that 5000 to 6000 people move the Las Vegas every month. That's like the entire population of my hometown of Dexter. Every month! What an amazing, fascinating place.

The Stranger: I am just now emerging from a bacterial haze. It'll still be a couple of days before I'm 100%. This has been a killer.

Hotels With A Jaundiced Eye: In spite of my dire illness, I managed to get a quick review done of the hotel I stayed at in South Beach, along with it's somewhat more rowdy neighbor, posted over at Hotel Chatter -- a truly fun site for the frequent traveler. Sadly, they mangled the formatting somewhat, but you'll get the idea. I plan to do more of this.

Speak the Truth: Tom Wolfe has been going around telling everyone his I am Charlotte Simmons is the first attempt to novelize the contemporary undergraduate experience. I love Tom Wolfe, but let me just say: ALL LIES!!! We know better than that, don’t we? I gotta find a way to ride these coattails.

Stupid Spoiled Whore: Sorry about that. Hope it didn’t trigger your company's profanity filter, but I couldn’t help but think of the recent South Park episode when I came across Paris Hilton's IMDB entry. Check it out. She has a new movie from coming out entitled National Lampoon's Pledge This which, in addition to "acting" in she is also Executive Producer. Can you not hear the voice over: "From the makers of Animal House and Executive Producer Paris Hilton..."

Also, please notice the Cinematographer credit, 1 Night in Paris. Strangely she is not given an acting credit for that, but her camerawork must have impressive.

Sick, Tired and Back: I spent the holidays in Florida. Five nights in South Beach followed by three more in Naples with a side trip to Key West. I'm probably not going to write about it because there were only two sunny and warm days -- the rest were windy and rainy -- and I did little that I haven’t done before. The beach in Naples is still about perfect. Duvall Street is still fun and sleazy tourist cheese. South Beach is still painfully hipper than thou.

In South Beach I stayed at The Bentley, a good quality small hotel with a pretty nice rooftop pool and sundeck that provided perfect views of the beach. The Bentley is more boutique than luxurious, no restaurant, lounge, business center, gym or anything like that on the property. It did have a certain charm and the staff was attentive and friendly, but not much else going for it. I'm officially off the boutique hotel kick, it's sprawling full service mega-properties for me from now on.

Miss Kate and HRH Miss Anna joined me in Naples at a smashingly good beach resort called LaPlaya from whence we took a New Year's Day ferry to Key West. Sadly, HRH was fighting s horrible cold and/or flu which I have inherited from her. So I spent my final day in Florida and my trip home in alternating chills and fever, basically drenching anything coming in contact with me in cold sweat. Did you know that if you shiver and sweat and give voice to a rasping hack, the people next to you on the plane will take especial notice; I do now. Around Noon today the fever finally broke and I think I should be back to normal in a couple of days.

I feel like I've spent a good part of the last six months sweaty and congested. You're supposed to be less susceptible to colds the older you get but it appears to be working opposite for me. This one was weird too. Colds, for me, follow a pretty set path -- a few days in my head, a few days in my chest, with a bit of sore throat all the way through; almost never a fever. This one was insane -- it was moving back and forth from head to chest every few minutes. Truly strange, there were a couple of moments where I entertained finding a doctor because it was so atypical.

This must be very entertaining for you, reading about my phlegm generating capabilities. I'll shut up and get some sleep. I'll try to get back to posting this weekend.

Down and Out in The Winter Wonderland: It's break time. No more posting until after the holidays. I need to write fiction and besides, all I can think to do is vent about winter to you. What a pain in the ass it was to get around in the snow that fell this morning, and the reward for that is a few days of single digits, thank you very much. One day soon I am going have a genuine this-is-where-Cameron-goes-berserk moment.

To remind me of happier times, here's the journal of my last Vegas trip. And I'll catch up with you in '05.

Football Picks -- Week 16: OK, this is the last of them. I'm not posting again until next year so maybe we'll have a recap then.

Here is all the background info. You know the routine by now.

First up teams that are 40+ points superior in DVOA and favored by less than a touchdown. There are none.

Next up, games where a team is favored by 7+ points but has less than a 30 point DVOA advantage (DVOA advantage in parenthesis):

• Indiana (27.5) -7 over San Diego


• Seattle (6.9) -7 over Arizona


• Miami (6.5) -8.5 over Cleveland

I'll skip taking San Diego because of Indiana's propensity for scoring a bazillion points meaning a 7 point spread for them is more like a 4 point spread for anyone else. I'll skip taking Arizona because they are just so bad. So we come to Miami -- this is where I could begin repeating my early season mantra 'The Fins are not as bad as everyone says.' But I won’t. They still don’t have much of an o-line. I think this line is a reaction to last week's fluke win over the Patriots. So as much as it saddens me, I have to take Cleveland and the eight and a half points.

Lastly we come to games where the team with the superior DVOA is the underdog. Here we again have three, including what must be one of the most whacked out lines in history:

• Atlanta (14.5) +5 at New Orleans


• Houston (1.4) +7 at Jacksonville


• Philly (76.7) +3 at St. Louis

I'm going to take the underdog and the points in all these. A lot of what goes into these is the assumption that teams that have something to play for -- some playoff scenario where it benefits them to win -- are going to be motivated enough to do better than the team that doesn’t. I'm not sold on that. See: Miami v New England last Monday.

In fact the PHL-STL game has the most whacked out spread I have seen relative to DVOA. But it is also a special situation. Philadelphia is 76.7 DVOA points superior to St. Louis, but St. Louis is the favorite by 3 points. Now this is probably the result of two things, 1) The injury to Terrell Owens and 2) the fact that Philly has nothing to play for, having clinched home field advantage through the playoffs.

But if you wan to play psychologist Philly does have something to prove in that they need to show they can win without Owens. Also, Philly is still the best team in the NFC. Also, the Rams are the most overrated team in football. I have to take Philly. If I was in Vegas, I'd bet a wad on this one.

So here's the last of them for this year:

• Cleveland +8.5 at Miami


• Atlanta +5 at New Orleans


• Houston +7 at Jacksonville


• Philly +3 at St. Louis

Whatever the outcome it's been an incredible season of picks. Maybe I'll quit my job, move south, and bet football games for a living.

Shiver: As I write this, the official temperature for Ann Arbor, Michigan is 3 (or trece, in Espanol de Bono). That's an insulting temperature. It's not much different from zero, but it's like, if you looked really hard you could find a little heat out there. Bollocks. Global warming cannot come fast enough for me. My next car will be a Hummer.

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Remember that hotel I was going to stay at in New York, Dream; it was close when i arrived and I ended up getting fobbed off on HoJo's? You can read about it here. Anyway, it seems they are finally open for business, but just barely. Check out these comments over at Hotel Chatter. Apparently, some of the workers have a slight hygiene problem:

One big problem with these contractors: They left an absolutely vile stench in the elevators, or on the floors that they would visit. Now the first time you get a waft B.O. you might think, one rotten apple, but time after time as these contractors entered and left different elevators and different floors the stench was literally unbearable.

Well, that's one problem they didn’t have at HoJo's.

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This cracked me up. The Ten Most Accurately Rated Artists in Rock History. Get this:

6. My Bloody Valentine: On the surface, My Bloody Valentine should be underrated, but they’re not; everyone who aggressively cares about alt guitar music considers Loveless to be a modern classic, and everyone who is wont to mention “swirling guitars” during casual conversation always references this specific album. Loveless sold about 200,000 copies. This is the correct number of people on earth who should be invested in the concept of swirling guitars.

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It looks the FCC has approved in-flight wireless for next year, which is very cool; of course, it will be a while before one airline decides to make it free and the others jump on the bandwagon. Until then, it'll be an arm and a leg.

They haven’t quite approved of cell phones. Interestingly, they are no longer worried about safety -- which means the existing ban has been one of the biggest bureaucratic jerk offs in history. No what they are no worried about is whether allowing cell phone conversations will be annoying to other passengers. Well, that's actually none of their business. That should be up to the airlines to set policy. Busybodies. This is the reason the poor flight attendants have to explain how to buckle a seat belt before every flight. If they are really worried about preventing things that are annoyances to passenger, I could provide a list.

But speaking of that, why is it so annoying when the person next you is talking on a cell phone. Why is that worse than holding a conversation with the person next to them (which is unlikely to be banned)? I know it is, but why? Anyone have an answer?

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The Wire just closed up another amazing season, sadly amid signs that it may not be renewed. If that's the case, it will be the first gutless move by HBO I can recall. But I'll wait until it actually happens to rail about it.

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It's a Wonderful Life, reenacted in 30 seconds. By bunnies. Would that all of Christmas (and Winter) passed so quickly.

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I guess the only thing to keep me warm is my football record. I was 3-0-1 in my picks this week. How cool hot is that?

Football Picks – Week 15: Only a couple of weeks left in the season. I know many of you will be glad. I, on the other hand, will need something new. How about online poker? Dangerous.

Anyway, here's where you can read the background on my selection method and get the latest decision grid for all NFL games. Below, a team's DVOA advantage is in parenthesis.

As always, we start with teams that are 40+ percentage points superior in DVOA and are favored by a touchdown or less. This week, that amounts to one:

Washington (47.3) -4.5 at San Francisco

That's cool with me. We'll take the 'Skins.

Next up we look for underdogs of a touchdown or more but with small(er) DVOA deficits. I do not have a rule of thumb for what small(er) DVOA deficits are. Anything under 30 is worth a look at least. Once again, there is only one in that category.

Indiana (19.4) -8 at Baltimore

I'm going to pass on this one. Baltimore has a great defense, but Indiana is at home and they have this disturbing habit of scoring a bajillion points at times.

Lastly, we look for disconnects -- games where the team with the superior DVOA is the underdog. This week we have a whopping six of these:

• Carolina (17.4) +3 at Atlanta


• Houston (30.9) +1 at Chicago


• Minnesota -3 at Detroit (0.2)


• Denver -1 at Kansas City (4.0)


• St Louis -3 at Arizona (2.6)


• Tennessee (1.3) +2.5 at Oakland

Wow. Where to begin? How about the beginning. I'm going to take Carolina although I'm rather scared to because it's Atlanta at home. But Atlanta has clenched the division and Carolina has come on so strong it's worth the risk. I've got to take Houston just because of the huge DVOA spread. I'll also take Detroit at home and suddenly with a running game, and hope Mike Tice keeps calling silly plays. KC over Denver is tough; Denver has something to fight for so I'll pass. I can’t take Arizona with the quarterback situation the way it is. Tennessee at Oakland -- I have no clue so I'll pass.

Thus, this week's picks:

• WAS -4.5 over SF


• CAR +3 over ATL


• Houston +1 over Chicago


• Detroit +3 over Minnesota

For the record I did my picking on Friday night with the intent of posting on Saturday, then I turned on Sportscenter and they were talking about today's games. At least I'll have these up before any of the games end.

Latest "I like the change of seasons, it helps me appreciate them," is a typical response you get when you whine about the winter. That's kind of like saying, I like getting beaten on the knees and elbows with a rubber mallet because you appreciate it when it stops.

I have always hated winter. I hate driving in it. I hate going to work in the dark, even though I'm my usual 15 minutes late, and I hate that the sun sets shortly after Noon. I hate my down comforter. I hate shaking the snow off the paper in the morning. I hate winter coats. I hate keeping my windows shut. I hate what the arid, forced air heat does to my silken skin.

And when it comes to skiing, I suck Lake Michigan through a straw.

And here in Michigan the onset of cold weather also means the onset of kamikaze deer leaping out in front of your car at three in the morning when you are driving back from the bar in a just under legally intoxicated condition. (Hypothetically speaking, of course.)

Fun fact: Hunting and/or farming deer for commercial purposes is against the law. We are swamped with the carcasses of suicidal deer alongside every road, but if you want to order a venison fillet, it'll have to be imported from New Zealand or somewhere.

To quote Jimmy Buffett, "I need to fly to St. Somewhere." And it's only December.

++++++

I am seriously considering getting an iBook. I have never been a Mac person. Really, they have always seemed a little weird to me -- the people that is, not the Macs. Especially now that they all have iPods. Do you realize they like to call themselves Pod People as if they have been replaced by aliens or something?

But, the little 12' iBook looks awfully appealing to me. It is light and has a good battery life; it even has a special power mode for playing DVDs that shuts down everything except the screen and the DVD player to extend the viewing time. It's nicely priced and good quality, or so I've read. The problem is it also involves me buying about $600 worth of software on top of everything else. I'd need Office Standard, Quicken, Photoshop CS, maybe one or two smaller things. That's a good chunk of cash and a major PITA over and above the purchase price, which makes me think I should stick with Windows. The big cost there is Office which I suspect will run me about $300. I'd love to hear if anyone knows how to get Office for Mac cheaply. (And no, Appleworks and OpenOffice will not do.)

I'd also be interested in any recommendations for a Windows/PC alternative. Battery life and low weight are big priorities. And built in wireless. And at least 512 meg. And Windows Professional (not Home). And a docking station would be nice. And…

If I defect, you can blame Dell and the Satanic Inspiron they sold me. But gawd, don’t let me become a Pod Person. Could there be a more conceptually obnoxious device than a U2 Special Edition iPod?

+++++++

My picks were 2-2 this week. That's bad. (In Vegas, breaking even means you lose the house rake.) But I take solace in the fact that I mentioned that I thought this week was scary, so at least I was right about being wrong. Also, this was my worst week of the season so far. What a great year when your worst week is 50-50.

Local Insanity: Ann Arbor has more than its share of the bizarre. One walk through the U of M diag during the Naked Mile or the Hash Bash would be proof enough, but here are a couple of things that stand out above the usual madness.

This unbelievable article in the Detroit Free Press details how Michigan defensive lineman Larry Harrison came to be arrested for indecent exposure. Get this:

Harrison, a suspect in 14 other cases of indecent exposure in campus neighborhoods since August, was caught in the act by a police officer who was part of a surveillance team, said Ann Arbor police Lt. Chris Heatley.

Apparently Ann Arbor has adopted a fifteen strikes and you’re out rule in these cases. Or maybe it's a fourteen strikes and we form a surveillance team rule.

"The charges are very serious and very alarming," coach Lloyd Carr said in a statement as the school suspended Harrison from the Jan. 1 Rose Bowl. "I can only hope they are not true."

Uh, Lloyd, he was caught in the act. I would try to imagine a situation where someone could be accidentally playing with himself on a stranger's porch but I might throw-up in my mouth.

The description of the suspect matched Harrison in several of the cases. In some of the incidents, the suspect covered his face. Harrison had been identified as a suspect before his arrest early Tuesday.

Police studied the U-M schedule and noticed the incidents stopped when Harrison was playing in out-of-town games. Heatley declined to give details of how Harrison, 6- feet-3, 313 pounds, was identified as a suspect.

A 6 foot 3, 315 pound man was able to evade the police by covering his face. If you say so. Luckily, someone in the AAPD had the bright idea that a man that size was probably a football player as opposed to an Art History TA.

Harrison, 20, appeared in 15th District Court wearing handcuffs, a yellow jersey and low-slung blue jeans without a belt. His attorney, Joe Simon, and his father, Larry Harrison, pulled Harrison's pants up to his waist several times during the arraignment.

I'm guessing Dad has been trying to get him to keep his pants up all his life.

++++

In a wonderful case of life imitating me, compare this statement from a U of M activist group pushing for mandatory sex education,

"A Gender and Sexuality requirement will create new dialogues, challenge hegemonic discourse, break taboos and stigmas, and open up realms of communication between all students," states the students’ proposal, slowly being circulated among LSA faculty members. The plan would incorporate a wide swathe of issues, from classes on "Hollywood Masculinity" to those on gender and health.

with this passage of a U of M professor assigning a term paper from a book you may have heard of called Apple Pie:

"The topic of your term paper is," the Prof. said with flourish, as if he were introducing a play, "Themes of pious oppression in literature since 1950." He wrote it on the board so I had to believe my ears. He continued, "You must identify at least three such themes from your readings, either explicit or unconscious, and explore them fully..."

You see, you can’t make this stuff up.

By the way, Tom Wolfe's recent bestseller I am Charlotte Simmons, about what a cauldron of sexual promiscuity and political correctness the modern university is, was partially researched at Michigan. I'm sure it's a fine book, but if you'd like something with a closer perspective, possibly more realism, and almost certainly more humor, you know where to go.

Football Picks -- Week 14: The fact that I went 5-1 last week is less remarkable than the statistical anomaly (it must be) that with the except of the one "on-tilt" bet I made in Vegas, I have made exactly one wrong pick each week. No matter how many games I have picked it has been exactly one wrong and the rest right. Averaging one wrong would be understandable, but never varying is truly bizarre.

Having said that I have now jinxed myself I'm sure.

Newbies, should see this page for an overview of the process and summary of the data used.

Our old standby of picking the favorite when they are 40+ percentage points superior in DVOA but favored by a touchdown or less fails us this week. There are no such situations. The closest situation we have is Philly 58.3 better in DVOA and favored by 9.5. You have to wonder if there isn't a point where superior DVOA doesn’t translate well into a larger margin of victory. Is a team that is 58 DVOA points superior more likely to win by 10 or more than a team that is, say, 42 points better. I don’t know. I am going to take Philly on this for two reasons. 1) I think there is a big difference between less than 10 points and 10 or more. I don’t think a touchdown and a field goal is an unreasonable margin of victory for any game, even when you take into account potential garbage time minor comebacks. If you opponent gets in striking range of ten points, it is no longer garbage time; 2) Looking at Philly's blow out of Green Bay last week, they are clearly motivated to win by a lot of points, and they certainly will be able to against Washington.

Next up we look for games where the spread is 7 or more, but there is not all that much difference in DVOA or it is not in (subjective) proportion to the spread. There are six such games that catch the eye:

• Buffalo -12 over Cleveland, BUF + 18.6 in DVOA


• Dallas -7 over New Orleans, DAL +2.0 in DVOA


• Atlanta -8 over Oakland, ATL +17.3 in DVOA


• Minnesota -7 over Seattle, MIN +6.9 in DVOA


• Green Bay -9.5 over Detroit, GB +4.0 in DVOA


• Arizona -7 over San Francisco, ARZ + 18.3 in DVOA

Picking underdogs here is complicated by the fact that, with the exception of Dallas, all the favorites are at home. I just can't pick Seattle or Oakland. Seattle has been spiraling down since early in the season, and Atlanta at home is too scary a concept to cross for the Raiders. After last weeks win and given the pathetic state of New Orleans, I would be more tempted to pick Dallas here, but that's way to small a difference in DVOA to justfy 7 points on the road.

I will take Cleveland and 12 simply because 12 is an awful lot of points. I will also take San Fran over Arizona because both these teams are so incredibly bad that a close game is likely. Now, what to do about the Lions? It's tempting to take the Lions but who knows. If Favre comes out with a chip on his shoulder in Lambeau the Lions are dead. He might after last week's loss, so I'm going to pass on this.

Our last check is for teams that are superior in DVOA but are even money or the favorite has the lower DVOA. There is only one such game (which suggests the spread is catching up to the DVOA, or vice versa). Kansas City is 23.9 points superior in DVOA but is getting a point and a half over Tennessee. That's too good to pass up, I'll take KC.

Recap:

• Philly -9.5 over Washington


• Cleveland +12 over Buffalo


• San Francisco +7 over Arizona


• Kansas City + 1.5 over Tennessee

This is about the least confident I have been in any of my picks this year. Too bad I can’t get odds that my one loss streak is broken.

HBO Roundup: A lot of reviewers panned the Peter Sellers bio, The Life and Death of Peter Sellers, that came on HBO Sunday. I thought it was good. They took a lot of chances dramatically, in fact using so many different creative devices may have come off a bit gimmicky, but I liked it. It couldn’t have been easy to biograph Sellers, who was practically an empty shell for his characters; especially without making him seem either heartlessly evil or helplessly sad. Sellers just was.

It won't be a grand revelation, but the movie is worth seeing. It's especially poignant if you remember some of the old British comedies that are recreated in part. Fascinating to be reminded of Sellers' performances in these films and have them put in the context of his personality (or lack thereof).

++++

The Sellers flick pre-empted The Wire, which only has two shows left on the season.

If you ask anyone what the best cop show ever made was, and they say anything but The Wire they probably never saw it. If you haven’t seen it, don’t bother watching the last two episodes. They will be meaningless to you. The first two seasons are out on DVD. You should rent them so you get the full effect, but even if you do, bear in mind that The Wire isn’t paced like a typical TV show. It is very possible that you could look at an early season episode and think absolutely nothing is going on. The Wire is intentionally paced to build slowly over the season. In this fascinating interview, done sometime during the second season, series creator David Simon explains in some detail about the artistic philosophy behind the show and how it steps beyond a standard cop show. It actually explains the show better than I can.

I should point out that even though it is a gritty adult show, in contrast to a lot of HBO drama, there is no preponderance of violence or nudity. It really is carried by the plot and the characters.

++++

Once The Wire ends we'll come to the second season of Carnivale. If you have broadband you can get the trailer here. This will be a make or break season for Carnivale. Last season was visually stunning, and eerily atmospheric, but a little light on plot structure. The challenge is simple. If they build a compelling storyline or two they'll have a winner. If they fall back pretty pictures and reed thin stories propped up by Deus Ex Machina, it'll be a write off.

It's interesting to contrast this interview with the Carnivale's creator, Daniel Knauf, with the above interview with David Simon. Knauf is all about find the right way to keep the audience passionate and keep "blowing their minds." Simon doesn't give a rat's pistachios about the audience; he only cares about the story. There's an awful lot that could be said about that contrast.

Rumor has it that Carnivale was looking to cast a multiple amputee for the role of Management for the sake of realism. Whatever the case, let's hope he (or she) can act.

Links Lying Around: Random nonsense I've stumbled across while trying to recover from Vegas.

• No dark sarcasm in the courtroom. The kids who sang the anti-grammatical chorus to Pink Floyd's The Wall are all grown up and suing for royalties. I guess they got their education after all.


• Quite possibly the coolest optical illusion ever.


• The ten least successful Christmas specials.


• When someone wants you to watch It's a Wonderful Life, scare them away by explaining how Pottersville Rocks!


• Remember Bejeweled, that insanely addictive little game that came out a couple of years ago? Bejeweled 2 is now available. Try to resist.


• Top 100 Overlooked films of the '90s, although I am not entirely certain I would call some of these films "overlooked." Found at the the evil devourer of time, List of Bests.


• I'm not big on the Mobil diamond and AAA star hotel ratings. I've been burned by these. But if you're curious, here're the latest top properties according to Mobil and AAA.


• Someone believes they accidentally photographed a meteorite striking a street lamp. That would have to be about a zillion-to-one shot. There is still a good deal of debate over what it actually is.


• A guide to the hot new board games. (Is that an oxymoron?)


• Iron Chef America is now an actual TV series, starting in January


• My review of The Moviegoer, by Walker Percy is up over at Blogcritics

Psst! 5-1 in football picks. {giggle}

Where's the Nearest Manger?: I have no reason to be totally freaked out about money right now, but for some reason I am. Actually, I do have a reason -- it's all the gratuitous traveling I'm doing. It tends to lead to a gag reaction when I open my credit card bills.

Then, of course, comes the first of the 2005 bills, which so far have my gym membership and my condo fees going up for next year. OK, the gym thing is a trivial amount, but a twenty dollar a month increase in condo fees after a similar increase last year is annoying the hell out of me. When I bought this place, condo fees were $125/month. Now they are $215. That's, what, a 72% increase in since '98 (I think). What else in the world has gone up in price 72% since 1998? We live in times of very low inflation; I can't see how maintenance costs could have gone up so damn much. Can they not find illegal immigrants and pay them slave wages like any self-respecting condo board?

The rational person is now saying, "So get on the condo board and do something about it." Well the fact is, it's not so bad to make me do that. It's a total of $240 dollars more than last year and I went through that in Vegas like it was nothing. But is does piss me off enough to bitch about it on my web site. Ipso bleedin' facto.

Another problem vexing me is my inability to alter the rate at which time passes.

Firstly, I need sleep badly, but I cannot get over this jet lag. The last three nights I have promised myself to get to sleep at a reasonable hour but I can’t seem to get off Vegas time, so despite being red-eyed and nearly catatonic, I lie awake in bed 'til the wee hours. I shall attempt to drug myself to sleep tonight.

Secondly, I have so much writing (and corresponding reading) to do I may never catch-up. I have to write about Vegas, and I have two book reviews swimming around in my head, not to mention fiction that I was just making some progress on until recently. Again, I may have to resort to chemicals.

This is all a problem of time. If I could just alter the rate at which time passes things would be OK. I could speed up time at night so as to get enough sleep and slow it down when I need to get writing done. A wayback machine would be nice. I'd put it on my Amazon wish list but they don’t seem to stock them. Using chemicals to alter the rate of passing of time is highly indicative of something about life at the turn of the millennium, no doubt. I just don’t know what it is.

Football -- Week 13: So last week, as I mentioned, I was 3-2. I should have been 3-1. My picks were Houston, Buffalo, Miami, Jacksonville and Baltimore. The first three covered or beat the spread, the last two didn’t. The real bad decision was Baltimore to beat the touchdown spread against New England. This was the one bet I made that violated the principles I have been following been following since I started doing my Football Outsiders based picks a few weeks ago. It didn’t really make the cut. It was close, but not clear. Unfortunately, I had read a couple of convincing articles by sportswriters who seemed to know what they were talking about that suggested that NE winning by a touchdown was unlikely. Plus, I was betting "on tilt" as they say in poker. My judgment was scrambled by some egregious blackjack losses, so I was groping for a reason to make up for them. Stupid. But it's all spilt milk now.

This week, in contrast there seem to be tons of picks. Also for this week I have summarized the key information on this page to give a better feel for how I make my decisions. (I'll clean up the HTML eventually, but that gets us back to the above mentioned time issue.)

Our first rule of thumb is to play the favorite when a team is 40+ percentage points better in DVOA but is favored by a touchdown or less. This week there are four of those.

• Buffalo -3.5 over Miami


• Kansas City even over Oakland


• Philly -6.5 over Green Bay


• Pittsburgh -3 over Jacksonville

The only one I'm even slightly hesitant about is Philly because they are a lock for the NFC title and Green Bay is still fighting tooth and nail and because Brett Farve is who he is.

There are two match-ups where the favorite is more than 50 DVOA percentage points up on the underdog, NE over CLE and IND over TEN, but the spreads are in excess of 10 points and that scares me. NFL teams play to win, not to beat the spread, so it's really easy for me to see one of these teams up by say 17 points and the opponent gets the ball in garbage time at the end of the game and easily marches down for a meaningless touchdown that just happens to beat the spread. Still, Indy is tempting; I do believe it is their goal to score a hundred points in a game.

OK, possibly playing "on tilt" again, but I am going to swap out Philly/GB for Indy -11.5 over Tennessee.

Converse of the above rule of thumb is to look for teams favored by at least a touchdown but with a DVOA difference less than 40, then decide if there is a compelling reason to pick the underdog. There are five such match-ups.

• STL -11 over SF


• NYJ -7 over HOU


• BAL -8 over CIN


• MIN -8 over CHI


• SEA -7 over DAL

Picking SF seems like a no brainer, but they are soooo bad. Houston can put it together but the Jets have their starting QB back and they are at home. Seattle has been on a brutal downward trend since the start of the season but they are at home and the Cowboys are a mess. Chicago can play well and they may want to at home against Minnesota. Baltimore is another favorite at home.

Chicago is tempting, but I'm going to take SF and the 11 points and hope the 49ers can make good use of the above mentioned garbage time. I'll back off of the rest.

Next up we look for teams that have superior DVOA but are the underdogs per the Vegas bookies. There are two of those this week. ATL is superior to TB but TB is giving 1.5. NYG is superior to WAS but WAS is giving 2.5. Neither of these are egregious enough to pick on.

Finally, a special situation. Arizona is starting a brand spanking new rookie QB, John Navarre. Navarre was a great QB for my alma mater (Michigan), but when you pile on the fact that it's his first ever snap in the NFL, his starting RB is out, he's got the added pressure of coming back to Michigan, and Joey Harrington and the Lions once again find themselves with something to prove -- at home, I just think the deck is too stacked against him. This is going to be a personnel issue based pick but I'll take the Lions and hope they can keep at least a touchdown advantage.

So here's the recap for week 13:

• Buffalo -3.5 over Miami


• Kansas City even over Oakland


• Pittsburgh -3 over Jacksonville


• Indianapolis -11.5 over Tennessee


• San Francisco +11.5 over St. Louis


• Detroit -6 over Arizona

Guess Who's Back -- Back Again: That'd be me. Back for a quick update.

First off, I was 3 - 2 in football picks, my worst week yet this season. Wouldn’t you know this was also the week that I actually wagered money on them, since I was in Vegas for Thanksgiving. Still you can’t complain about coming out ahead, and they did a bit to alleviate my horrible showing at the blackjack table. A full accounting is coming (both of the picks and the trip), but I remain jetlagged for the moment so I'll need a few days to get back to what passes for normal.

On this trip, I discovered a couple of things. Not the least of which is that I really need a better understanding of my camera. Virtually every one of the pictures I took of the strip at night came out blurry as hell. If it was just a few of them I could pass it off to the fact that it was bitter cold and I may have been shivering. But all of them? Nope. Either I'm doing something wrong or the camera is. I'm guessing me.

The other thing I realized is that my laptop is well nigh useless. This is a Dell Inspiron I bought a coupe of years ago. The power supply has always been flaky; sometimes after having been shut down for hours, it inexplicably boots up. Seriously freaky if it happens in the middle of the night when it seems like an eerie blue glow is emanating from the next room for no reason. Now I discover that it will only hold a charge for about 15 minutes. Which when combined with the fact that I could not get the hotel room connection working meant that I had to hunt down internet cafes on the Strip and the laptop was essentially a 10 pound albatross I got to lug through various airports.

Plus, the CD burner doesn’t work properly. It will duplicate entire CDs via Roxio, but can’t copy ad hoc files to a CD for backup. What a POS. When you combine this with the fact that my desktop is also on its last legs and recently needed a solid weeks work to reconstruct after a disk crash, it's clear it's time for me to invest in new computer infrastructure. Lucky I've been spending an insane amount of money on recreational travel.

Fortunately my employer provides interest free computer loans so it looks like I'm going to pick up a new IBM X series sub-three-pounder with built in wireless and take the hit over the next eighteen months as a paycheck deduction.

Anyway, I've finished reading The Moviegoer by Walker Percy. At the outset I thought it might turn out to be one for the Pantheon, but now I don’t think so. Not that it wasn't rewarding, but it is a difficult book to get a grip on and in the end, the objective is not all that exceptional. A wonderful main character, though, and some interesting perspective. I hope to do a full review.

At the moment I am reading The Whole Wide World, by Yvonne Castaneda, an author of my acquaintance. You'll get the scoop on that too.

But I really really really really really need some sleep. More soon.

Turkey Links: That is to say, links for your entertainment when the food is cleared and the football games are over and your grandpa is sitting on the couch with his belt undone and groaning at the first of what will be uncountable showings of A Christmas Story.

• The continuing saga of Ricky Williams. I wonder if some casino in Vegas would give odds that Ricky starts a cult that is raided by the DEA at some point within the next 10 years. With a teaser on whether Ricky's official statement will be "Gunga galunga...gunga, gunga-galunga."


• The worst jobs in science. I could've done without knowing at that some of these existed. So I figured I'd share my pain.


• Lost Islands of the World. Any one of these would work for the folks who still can’t get over the last election. Fun fact: The remotest inhabited island in the world is Tristan da Cunha, a English settlement in the South Atlantic. There are about 300 people who live there and if you Google "Tristan Da Cunha" 226,000 pages. That's over 750 pages per resident. And yes, I have no idea where I was going with this.


• Rules for calling shotgun. A good read. Until now, I was always confused by seemingly random cries of "Ozzie Pissbolt!" at the start of a road trip.


• Basketbrawl Analysis. My favorite sportswriter, Bill Simmons, analyzes the TIVO equivalent of the Zapruder film and discovers -- surprise! -- Ron Artest is certifiably insane.


• AFI to pick best 100 movie quotes. I'd could tell you my favorite, but then I would have to use the phase, "Gunga Galunga...gunga, gunga-galunga" twice in one post.

Enjoy your cooked, eviserated raptor flesh and pulverized, dirt-incubated tubers with semi-gelatinous, liquified fat coating.

Football Follow-up: 4-1-1. Interestingly the loss was the one where I followed my hard and fast rule. The tie was Green Bay and Houston. That makes my record for three weeks of Football Outsiders based picks 12-3-1. Wow. Your standard degenerate gambler would kill for that record. Maybe I should start a service and charge people.

I'm not sure if I am going to be able to post picks this week, what with the holiday and all. I will certainly make them, but I may not get them on-line in time. If not, I'll share them afterwards and you'll just have to trust me.

Football Picks -- Week 11: Squeaking in just under the wire. As with the last couple of weeks, these picks are based on the analysis done by Football Outsiders who try to make quantitative evaluations of NFL teams. This evaluation is distilled into a number called DVOA (background). DVOA ratings through last week are listed here. This week they also did a set of DVOAs which were more heavily weight towards the later games. It makes sense to place more emphasis on the later games, so those are the figures I'm using. The point lines are from Vegas.com, as of about 11PM Friday. I take the most beneficial odds available under the assumption that it is what I could get in Vegas. Your mileage may vary.

Kind of slim pickings this week. Just one obvious choice.

I've been trying to develop a rule of thumb which states that when a team is 40 or more DVOA percentage points superior and is giving a touchdown or less, take the favorite, give the points. There is only one such situation this week. San Diego is 52.7 percentage points superior to Oakland, but is giving only 4 points. So there's an obvious pick right there: Chargers -4.

The other three situations where a team is at least 40 percentage points superior in DVOA are Baltimore over Dallas, Tampa Bay over San Francisco, Philly over Washington. In the case of Baltimore and Tampa Bay, they are giving 7.5 points as the favorite. A couple of things make these appealing. First, the favorite is at home, which is usually good for three points. Second, in both these cases, the favorite DVOA is trending up and the underdog is trending down. On the other hand, after my big week last week, I promised myself not to do anything stupid. Oh well, stupid is as stupid does. I'll take both Baltimore and Tampa Bay and give 7.5 points. Philly is giving 10.5 points to Washington and that is too generous for me.

The next set of games to examine are those where the team with superior DVOA is the underdog. Here's the list:

• Buffalo is 7.5 points superior in DVOA and is getting 1.5 points from St. Louis.


• The New York Jets are 23.4 points superior in DVOA and are getting a single point from Cleveland.


• The New York Giants are a whopping .3 superior in DVOA and are getting a field goal from Atlanta.


• Houston is 4.5 points superior in DVOA and are getting a field goal from Green Bay.

It seems like the Jets would be an obvious pick, but remember the recent injury to their QB Chad Pennington. Quincy Carter is the replacement and I'm just not comfortable with him. I'll pass on the Jets until we get a better idea of how they are functioning with Carter. The Giants and Atlanta are just too close in DVOA to make a call on this basis. Buffalo and Houston are both tempting and both are at home, so let's pull the trigger on those -- pick Buffalo +1.5 and Houston +3.

The last category we'll look at is games where the point spread is greater than a touchdown but the DVOAs are less than, say, 30. In this case there are two: Seattle is 29.6 points superior in DVOA and is giving a whopping 10 points to Miami. In a lot of cases this would be tempting, but Seattle is at home and Miami has packed it in for the season, so I'm going to pass on it. Remarkable how my tune has changed on Miami over the course of the season. The other one is Minnesota being 3.6 points superior in DVOA to Detroit and giving 7.5. It is in Minnesota, but I'm going take the risk on this one since I think the Lions can stay within a touchdown and Randy Moss' situation is still iffy.

To recap:

• San Diego -4 over Oakland


• Baltimore -7.5 over Dallas


• Tampa Bay -7.5 over San Francisco


• Buffalo +1.5 over St. Louis


• Houston +3 over Green Bay


• Detroit +7.5 over Minnesota

I shall now hold my breath.

Status Memo: Master and Commander came to HBO on Saturday. I saw it in a hotel room during one of my travels and thought it to be very good. I have now seen it two more times and my admiration has grown each time. I may have to review it. A strikingly well thought out piece of drama.

This really gnaws my ass: There are two radio stations in the area that have for the past couple of weeks, been playing nothing but Christmas music. That means they will have played nearly two full months of Christmas music by the time it's all over. Do advertisers really favor that, spending a full sixth of the year with nothing but annoying, repetitive holiday music? I suppose they hope they will get played as background music in retail stores trying to put shoppers in the gift buying mood. Who knows, maybe it works. Doesn't stop me from cursing them.

Travel Links: Thought I'd take a moment to share some interesting travel links I've found in my, well, travels.

• Mobissimo searches dozens of airfare sites to get you the best deal, including many non-US based services.


• Seat Guru will help you pick the right seat once you have your flight.


• Fodor's keeps munch of the info in their travel guides on line; and Right This Way is Fodor's blog of the latest travel news.


• Frommer's is a competitor to Fodor's, a bit better at hotel reviews.


• Travel Intelligence, yet another since for reviews and guidance.


• Johnny Jet is all links all the time.


• Travel Zoo keeps up on the current deals.


• IgoUgo consists of actual travel journals from actual people. Some good scoop when making plans. I may be posting future travel writing here.


• Tripadvisor is the site I rely on when deciding what hotel to book. Most hotels have dozens reviews and comments from recent visitors. This is the site that will save you from falling for the beautiful pictures on the hotel web site. Plus, once you find a hotel you like, click the Best Deals link and you can search Expedia, Hotels.com, Travelocity, and Orbitz for the best rate. Far and away the most important travel resource on the web.

Habla Espanol?: There are a couple of thing about the new U2 song, Vertigo worth mentioning. First, it is the only U2 song I have ever heard that doesn't make me hit the Seek button.

Second, in what bizarre numerical system is it legitimate to count "uno…dos…tres…catorce"? One…two…three…fourteen? This is very disturbing. Bono, who is never less than multi-culturally aware and politically correct, doesn’t take the time to learn to correctly count to four in Spanish? Then he throws in an "Hola!" and a "Donde estas?" to sound even more like someone dumbass gringo in Tijuana trying to make nice with the locals. I'm guessing the guy from his entourage who got sent out for the Spanish phrasebook is on the street now.

Football Follow-up: 5-1. Wow. My continuing experiment in basing picks on Football Outsiders DVOA has generated two great weeks of remarkable results. This could turn out to be something. Of course, what that means is that I have to be ardently on guard against doing something stupid this week.

The new DVOAs are already out at Football Outsiders and this week they have introduced a weighted DVOA that more heavily weights recent games. I'll have to figure out how that is going to fit into my picks for this week.

BTW, I have a new piece on football fandom up over at Blogcritics.

Football Picks – Week 10: This week we continue our experiment with picks based on the DVOA ratings (background) produced by Football Outsiders. This week's DVOA ratings are here. This week's point spreads are here (I'm using the spreads as of about 8 PM eastern on Friday night).

Let's start with the big differences in DVOA. Philly is 50.2 DVOA points higher than Dallas and giving 6.5 points in odds. Even better, Pittsburgh is 40.5 DVOA points higher than Cleveland and giving only 3.5 points in odds. I'm hoping to have a rule of thumb where if a team is 40 or more percentage points higher in DVOA and is giving less than a touchdown, you take the favorite. So my first two picks are Philly -6.5 over Dallas and Pittsburgh -3.5 over Cleveland.

New England is close. They are 39.8 DVOA points higher than Buffalo and giving 7 points in odds. That's borderline. It's tempting, but I'm going to keep them on provisional watch because they are banged up (remember DVOA will not take into account injuries until their effect is worked into the plays and scores of the season) and because Buffalo is improving and they are at home.

Next, there are 5 match-ups where the team with the stronger DVOA is the underdog:

• Detroit is +6.9 in DVOA over Jacksonville but Jax is giving 3.5


• Cincinnati is +6.4 in DVOA over Washington but Washington is giving 3.5


• Minnesota is +13.1 in DVOA over Green Bay but Green Bay is giving 4.5


• Chicago is +13.6 in DVOA over Tennessee but Tennessee is giving 6


• Carolina is +19.3 in DVOA over San Francisco but San Francisco is giving 1

Well. I'm going to pass on Detroit and Cincy since 6.x is not all that much of the difference and the three and a half points are roughly the advantage the other teams should have for being at home. Too dicey.

Minnesota is tempting, but the injury to Randy Moss plus the game being at Lambeau, makes me think it's best to pass here also.

The other two are sweet. Chicago has a reasonably better DVOA and gets a solid six points, and Carolina has a significantly higher DVOA than SF and still gets a point. Add two more picks: Chicago +6 and Carolina +1. We can keep provisional watch on the other higher rated underdogs.

In the remaining games there a couple of other opportunities. I can get a pick 'em on Seattle vs. St. Louis, yet Seattle is 28.9 points higher in DVOA, this is also something of a revenge game for Seattle after the tough loss to the Rams a few weeks ago. And Baltimore is 3.8 points in DVOA better than the New York Jets with a pick 'em. Bearing in mind the Chad Pennington is down and the less talented substance abuser Quincy Carter is leading the Jets, while the talented and probably angry substance abuser Jamal Lewis is making his return after suspension for the Ravens. I'm guessing the Ravens take this one handily. So add two more picks, Seattle and Baltimore even steven.

To recap, I'm making six picks (a lot for me):

• Philly -6.5 over Dallas


• Pittsburgh -3.5 over Cleveland


• Chicago +6 over Tennessee


• Carolina +1 over San Francisco


• Seattle over St. Louis straight up


• Baltimore over New York Jets straight up

Vegas is getting closer everyday.

What a Wreck: My New Orleans travel article is done. Other than that, I can only ask: Could things get any more mangled?

I have a desktop (rarely used) and a laptop. This week I had the hard drive on the desktop crashed. Not exactly sure what went wrong, but I reinstalled the operating system (Win2K) and it seemed to be going well. Then, I stupidly connected to the internet before re-applying all the security/service packs I had installed over the years. Damned if it wasn't about 15 minutes before I had a virus infection (Sasser, I believe). OK, so I download an anti-virus package and run it. And I stupidly (once again) tell the thing to remove all infected files (at this point I think well over 100 files were infected), even the critical ones. Naturally that removes files that are needed for me to access the CD-ROM, which I need to reinstall the operating system again, so I can install the files needed for the CD-ROM, which I can;t use cause of the missing files. Arrgh. So I have to reconfigure the BIOS to boot the CD and do a completely clean install. What a pain in the ass. It's tempting to say the lesson is that you can never drop you guard even for a minute when it comes to Internet security. It's also tempting to say the lesson is that I am an idiot. But the real lesson is that the little snot-gobblers who write viruses should be skinned and salted.

Then, in the course of trying to get some laptop data moved over to the desktop I discover I cannot copy files to my CD-R. I can use software to duplicate entire CDs, but I can’t copy individual files and folders. This laptop is a Dell Inspiron and has been nothing but trouble since I bought it. So I write down the particulars of the problem go into work today with a plan to log into to Dell's technical support chat only to find that after entering my problem in detail and clicking submit, I get a message saying no one is available please try again later. Why couldn’t they have told me that before I typed it up? So I go to Dell email support only to discover you need to enter the "tag" number of your machine so they can route your email properly. I don’t have the tag number, I'm at work, my laptop's at home. KEEE-RIST!

So in the interest of doing something productive, I walk over to the nearest brick wall and pound my head against it for a good solid five minutes.

In an unrelated development, it seems the hotel follies from my last trip to NYC will never end. I get my American Express bill and I find the Hilton in New York has posted a $69.80 charge to my credit card for use of the mini-bar.

First of all, I NEVER EVER use the mini-bar. I have a deep seated philosophical opposition to the mini-bar. I believe it is blatantly exploitive. I generally take a very dim view of the anti-corporate-they-are-all-out-to-rip-us-off-to-line-their-silk-pockets whack jobs who protest WTO meetings and Wal*Mart openings. But I draw the line at the mini-bar. It is an evil attempt to get you to pay exorbitant prices just because there is little alternative. I will pay princely sums for ultra-luxurious hotels, but I refuse to spend three dollars for a bottle of water from the mini-bar. You gotta have some boundaries in this world.

Second, even considering the usurious prices, $69.80 would have to pretty much empty the thing, wouldn't it? Let's see, figure an average of three dollars for a drink or a bag of peanuts means I would have had to down something on the order of 10 warm Seagram's Ginger Ales, 8 Butterfingers, 3 little bags of trail mix, and a couple of Bud Light's for dessert -- or something to that effect. What, did they think I was trolling Manhattan with Cheech and Chong?

Luckily, and to the credit of the Hilton, this was cleared up with a quick phone call. Saved me another trip to the brick wall.

Maybe I Can Drive Her Car: HRH Miss Anna managed to land a role in a pilot for the Sci-Fi channel to be produced by Roman Pictures and entitled, Signals. If From the description, it sounds a little X-files-ish. Anna is set to play Tina Morgan, the girlfriend of young Zack Rebak, child genius and psychic stud-boy. No telling what will come of all this, but Anna is clearly on her way to stardom. I'm sure she'll let me be in her entourage.

Thanks For Listening: It seems Alan Ball has decided to take my advice and nail the coffin shut on Six Feet Under. Frightening, the power I wield.

Football Follow-up: Interesting. My Football Outsiders based picks came out 3-1, with only Denver defying their DVOA. On the other hand, my provisional observations were all WAY off base. More on this when this week's DVOA comes out and the spreads stabilize. Very interesting.

Note: The '72 Dolphins popped the corks this week.

Football Picks – Week 9: Thought I forgot about these, didn’t you? We're going to try something a little different this week.

There is a site you may have heard of called Football Outsiders where, over the past couple of years, they have been working hard at doing deep statistical analysis of football. In the same vein as has been done for many years in baseball, where you may have heard the term Sabrematics to describe it. (Interestingly, the godfather of Sabrematics is a man named Bill James, who for many years produced the annual Baseball Abstract, an exhaustive compendium of baseball statistics. This past year, he was hired by the Boston Red Sox as a consultant. Do the math.)

FO has developed a formula called DVOA, which stands for Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. In their own words:

Every single play run in the NFL gets a "success value" based on this system, and then that number gets compared to the average success values of plays in similar situations for the entire season for all players, adjusted for a number of variables. These include down and distance, field location, time remaining in game, and current scoring lead or deficit. Rushing plays are compared to other rushing plays, passing plays to other passing plays, tight ends get compared to tight ends and wideouts to wideouts.

[snip]

By adjusting each play based on the defense's average success in stopping that type of play over the course of a season, we get DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Rushing and passing plays are adjusted based on down and location on the field; receiving plays are also adjusted based on how the defense performs against passes to running backs, tight ends, and wide receivers.

You could read the whole thing, but I'm pretty sure your head would explode. Bottom line is, they come up with a percentage value for each team in the league. A positive percentage means better than average, a negative percentage worse. (They also apply this formula to individual players, but that's not relevant here.)

Now, the folks at FO go to great pains to point out that their numbers are NOT meant to be predictive. They don’t take into account things like injuries and such. But, if one assumes they are on to something, one might look for discrepancies between DVOA and the point-spread, for gambling guidance. Mighn't one?

Here are the spreads (probably gone by the time you read this). Here are the DVOA ratings through week 8. This time I'll do the math.

There are two games where the DVOA difference is over 40%. Seattle (11.0) at San Francisco (-35.3) -- the spread is Seattle -7. New England (31.9) at St Louis (-18.0) -- the spread is New England -1. I'm going to take that favorite in both these, on the principal that such a large difference really tilts the scales in my favor, especially regarding the Patriots, although it's easy to make a case for the Rams given the New England injuries.

Next, Houston (10.0) at Denver (8.4) -- the spread is Denver -6.5. These are the two closest in DVOA and Houston is actually ranked slightly better. Given the big spread for Denver, I'll take the Houston and the points.

The only other game where the favorite in the spread has a lower DVOA than the underdog is Arizona (-9.7) at Miami (-37.6) -- the spread is Miami -3. Notice how I have not said Miami is not as bad as everyone thinks. I'm pretty much cured of that particular delusion. So we'll take the Cardinals and the field goal here.

Provisional comments: These are not picks, just observations. Other games that look out of line are the Jets -3 over Buffalo when their DVOA is 26.1 points greater and KC over the Bucs by 3 when their DVOA is 30.8 greater. You'd think that much of a difference would be worth more than a mere field goal. Then there's the Philly versus Pittsburgh pick 'em, when Philly is 16.8 points greater in DVOA.

To recap, my official picks are:

• Seattle -7 over San Francisco


• New England -1 over St. Louis


• Houston +6.5 over Denver


• Arizona +3 over Miami

This could be interesting. I may try to keep this going over the next few weeks to see how it averages out.

Forced to Abstain: I must admit that I didn’t vote yesterday. It was not for lack of effort. I went by the polls three times and all three times folks were telling tales of two hour waits. I simply did not have two straight empty hours yesterday to stand in line.

If I thought there was going to be a huge wait, I would have planned for it, but I live in the formerly sleepy, semi-rural little town of Dexter, MI. Four years ago, I went to the polls on the way to work, and got in and out in less than half an hour. Of course, had I given it some thought, it would have occurred to me that I used to be able to go to the post office at Noon and there would be no line -- now it's out the door; and they had to build larger High and Middle schools just to hold the influx of young-uns. Shoulda - woulda - coulda. Net result, I didn’t vote in a federal election for the first time since 1980.

I am not passionate about politics in the slightest. I have opinions, of course (it may surprise you to hear that I am somewhat opinionated), but I rarely share my political ones. In my experience, most people who ask about your political opinions only want an excuse to go off on some sort of self-satisfying rant about their own political opinions, which are almost always just peep holes on their personal neuroses.

I would have voted for Bush, but frankly, I wasn't particularly worried if Kerry got elected. Maybe because I've seen the country survive and even prosper under presidents I didn’t vote for, I don't get all worked up about these things. Maybe because, though I have lots of opinions, I just don’t have the arrogant certainty that they are unquestionably correct and invariably urgent. Maybe it's good that I let everyone else make the decision this time. From now on, it's absentee for me.

On the upside, I am finally starting to feel better; not surprisingly that coincides with my getting the re-proofed manuscript of Business As Usual off to the new publisher. Still, I need more hours in the day than the solar system currently allows.

Snivel: The last couple of days I have been laid low by a cold. And I mean really laid low-- like sleeping for 15 hours a day. Plus, having placed Apple Pie with a new publisher I am now doing the same with Business As Usual, so all the reviewing and editing has to be redone. Between that and blowing my nose and coughing my brains out, I haven’t had time for much else.

New Orleans soon, I promise. I'll be back when I recover.

Housekeeping: The latest on my New York trip is up. It took a while because I ran out of free space provided by my ISP, thanks to my silly new habit of taking pictures. So I had to hunt around for free places to store pictures -- yes that's right, I pay through the nose for pointlessly luxurious hotels but I try to find free web storage. I didn’t find anything that I liked so I had to register a new site, damstore.net, to hold all the future pics and travel articles.

As I write this, there is a lunar eclipse going on outside and the Boston Red Sox seem poised to win the World Series. Spooky.

Some quickies:

• Back on 9/29 I flippantly predicted Marion Barry would be involved in the new baseball stadium in DC and, whaddaya know: "The agreement requires the council to act by Dec. 31. That deadline has a secondary importance because three council members who support baseball are expected to be replaced in January by three who aren't sold on the idea. They include former Mayor Marion Barry."


• Speaking of being right, I made nasty comments about the state of the Flamingo Hotel in my write-up on my previous Vegas excursion. Now employees and patrons are contracting some sort of bizarre disease. Step aside, Miss Cleo. Of course, the contrarian in me figures they should be dropping prices to regenerate business any day now...


• Speaking of hotels, this blogger describes the Ryugyong Hotel in Pyongyang, DPRK (North Korea): "The Ryugyong Hotel is, in my opinion, the single most unsettling structure ever erected by the hand of man. It's 1,082 feet tall, has 105 floors, and encloses 3.9 million square meters of floor space. And it is completely empty. It doesn't even have windows." But is it worse than the HoJo's in mid-town Manhattan?


• Speaking of the Far East, in what must be multiculturalism's greatest triumph, there is a Hooter's opening in Shanghai. As HRH Miss Anna would say, "Good, cheap wings."


• Speaking of paradigmatic restaurants, it appears Ronald McDonald dolls are the new version of crop circles. Exceedingly creepy.


• Speaking of creepy, I'll just quote this article and leave it at that. "At around 11 p.m., authorities said police responded to a report that Schulz, who was dressed like Elvis Presley, was having convulsions after falling down stairs outside the hall. When officers arrived to help, they said Schulz jumped up, said "Praise the Lord, Viva Las Vegas," then started singing show tunes." Thank you; thank you very much.

Next up, New Orleans.

Mangle Minor: I am trying a minor redesign in an effort to de-emphasize the blog and highlight the travel writing and critiques. It looks a little awkward and needs some tweaking, but I should get it cleaned up soon.

Back in the Saddle: In the past couple of weeks I have been to New York City and New Orleans. Truly fine trips, but damn -- the other night I woke up from a nightmare where I was stranded in the middle of this enormous city when a hotel where I had a reservation turned out to be closed for business, so I was standing in the street trying to call Travelocity to sort things out and, oh wait…that really happened. More on that to come.

While I'm on the topic of travel I should make another special travel related note. In my piece on Savannah and Hilton Head, Trying to Reason with Hurricane Season, I slammed Northwest Airlines over a bad bit of interaction. I also mentioned that I sent them a scathing email and they had not responded. I was wrong. They had responded but I just missed seeing it in my inbox. And they were very conciliatory and even gave me 5000 miles for my trouble. In the service industry, that's called a "save". Northwest is back in my good graces.

Not ready to get back to football picks just yet. In fact, I have an idea for a new method of picking based on the work done at Football Outsiders. With any luck I will have something ready for that by next week. Like everything else, more later.

As soon as I got to New Orleans I planned to drop some cash on Sunday's games. I printed out the latest spreads and made my picks on the way down. Naturally, when I arrived, I quickly discovered there is no sports book at Harrah's Casino in the Big Easy. Turns out I was lucky because my picks would have been losers. (Instead I did my part to finance the casino through craps and blackjack.) Whatever made me actually believe, however briefly, in the Lions? Since I didn't officially make the picks, they don’t count against my record. That's the rule.

I was really more interested in following the Yankees-Sox drama anyway. An amazing thing to see. I was actually grateful not to be from NY or Boston because I probably would have spent the better portion of the week staggering around like Fred Sanford having the big one.

Also, I'm in the process of reading a remarkable novel called The Moviegoer, by Walker Percy, set in the late fifties in New Orleans, which is where I bought it (in New Orleans, not the late fifties, Einstein). I'm only about halfway through, but I have never encountered a character more like me than Binx Bolling, or at least how I think of myself. I'm sure a complete review will be coming.

For now, I'm writing as fast as I can. I will work like a speed freak this weekend and with luck I'll have more on everything this early next week.

Back on Hiatus: In record time, we have my travel article on Savannah and Hilton Head, entitled Trying to Reason with Hurricane Season.

Also, I am once again 3-1 in my football picks. So far I've been 3-1, 4-1, 3-1, 3-1. 13-4. I rule, clearly.

Unfortunately there will be no picks for a little while, or any other posts. Maybe as long as a month. I have to deal with my difficult and troublesome personal life before I get back to this. A shame when I'm on such a winning streak, but reality bites.

You can always email me if you are so moved. I have not forsaken you completely, just for the time being. Later, gator.