Friday, January 06, 2023

The Month That Was - December 2022

"What have we learned, Palmer?" That quote is far too obscure to expect anyone to know it.  It's from an underappreciated Coen Bros. film, Burn After Reading.  After a movie's worth of dysfunctional and absurd madness ends, J. K. Simmons asks that of his underling. He answers his own question with, "I guess we learned not to do it again.  I'm f*cked if I know what we did."

Last year at this time I was just getting over a horrendous bout with Covid, I had hung on to my job by the skin of my teeth, and was diagnosed with arthritis.  This year I'm doing better.  I have found some security, and even advancement, at work, albeit with a good deal more day to day stress. So with the absurd madness of Covid and career upheaval in the past, I can only think to ask myself, "What have we learned, Palmer?"  Sadly my answer is the same as J.K. Simmons'. 


As always I continue to fall back on the same two New Year's Resolutions:

  1. Enhance and enrich the lives of people I care about.

  2. Fight sloth (the Deadly Sin, not the adorable forest creature).


I've done well on (1).  I bought a house in Savannah to facilitate my dejure step-daughter's education. Also, I was able to see my assistance to a beloved friend pay off in her getting her Master's Degree and relocating to Arizona with a comfy job.  (2) remains a never-ending battle.


[Rant, Travel] Hertz Hurts

[TV] Toob Notes

[Roaring 20s] Roaring 20s 2.0 Follow Up


[Rant, Travel] Hertz Hurts

Long time readers know that I have a hate/hate relationship with car rental agencies.  The glaring exception to this is National Car Rental and if I have one piece of advice every traveler should follow it is: Join National's Emerald Club and never rent a car from anyone but National unless it's a dire emergency.  If National has no cars available, consider flying into another airport when cars are available or rescheduling your trip until they do. (That last sentence is only partially tongue in cheek.)

The corporate culture at every other car rental company is aggressively adversarial.  Whether it's misleading you into buying add-ons or scaring you into insurance you don't need or charging you for damage you didn't cause -- they are looking for ways to squeeze you and slap you.  They do this not because it is especially profitable, but because their culture teaches them that their customers are either easy marks or dishonest cheats.  Despite my jaded view, I have to admit, the recent actions from Hertz surprised even me in its outright contemptuousness. 


Hertz's (reasonable) policy is that cars that are not returned in the time frame expected get reported to the police as stolen.  Now I am sure even Hertz doesn't report a car stolen as soon as it's late.  There is probably a grace period, during which they expect you to contact them and/or they try to contact you, but after that, yeah, the car is effectively stolen.


Well it seems our friends at Hertz had what they are calling a "computer glitch" that ended up having them report legitimately rented cars as stolen.  Imagine tooling around in your rented Hertz -- having been scammed into an upgrade and liability insurance despite already being covered by your American Express -- when you get pulled over, arrested, and even jailed for auto theft. It was not just one or two cases.  There were three hundred and sixty-four claims against Hertz for this in a class action lawsuit.


Now, I work in technology so I know the kind of bad situations "computer glitches" can get you in.  And I am not someone inclined to decry big corporations needlessly.  They are, in fact, easy targets.  They are risk averse, vulnerable to PR assaults, and easy to demonize because there is never a human face to them.  Still, I can't help but wonder how this "computer glitch" was left in the wild for so long without somebody saying, "Maybe we should do a manual review before we report cars stolen and have our customers thrown in jail until we get the glitch fixed."


The lawsuit itself calls that out (not manually reviewing stolen car reporting) as an act of corporate malfeasance.  And it goes one better, claiming that in some instances, when confronted with a false report, Hertz actually backdated the documentation to make it look like the customer was at fault.  Here is a good summary.  If that is true, it's outright fraud.


Perhaps we will never know the truth since Hertz has settled the cases (or at least "most" of the cases) for $168M.  My advanced math skills tell me that is well in excess of $450k per claim, which suggests they really, really didn't want this to go further.


On the one hand Hertz has been a mess.  They filed Chapter 11 during the pandemic and have settled other class actions brought against them including not paying overtime, false claims of damages, excessive toll fees, and more.  You'd think they were a hair's breadth from folding.  Then it turns out, they just arranged to buy a 100K Tesla fleet for $4.2B.  Da hell?


By the end of April 2020, Hertz was missing lease payments on its fleet. On May 18, Kathryn Marinello stepped down as CEO. Four days later, on May 22, the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, listing $18 billion in debt. Shortly after that, famed activist investor Carl Icahn sold his entire 39% stake in Hertz for a mere 72 cents per share, taking a $2 billion loss.


Then, a funny thing happened. Retail investors started flocking to Hertz stock. Some were driven by a belief that the Hertz brand could eventually sell for enough to return some value to equity holders. Some were driven by pure speculation. Whatever the reason, the result was that Hertz shares soared 1,000% in the span of two weeks, climbing from as low as 59 cents per share up to $5.50.


Covid taketh away and then Covid giveth right back.  Bankruptcy law is a strange thing.  You would think going bankrupt would mean destruction, but it often means the opposite.  You get a clean slate financially and your lenders have to eat it.  The adage "If you owe someone $100 and can't pay you are in trouble, but if you owe someone millions and can't pay, they are in trouble" is very, very true.


Those financial machinations may bring profit.  It's possible they will attract a whole demographic of retail renters with the offer of Teslas instead of Chevy Malibus. But if there is any justice, it will be short lived unless they change their behavior toward their customers.  "I got falsely arrested for auto theft and thrown in jail, but at least I was driving a Tesla," said no one ever.


In contrast, think of the disaster Southwest Airlines just went through.  They, like Hertz, have a lot of fundamental problems but they are generally well-liked by their customers.  Speculation currently is that Southwest will weather the reputational storm.  People are forgiving if they don't think you're malicious.


The moral of the story:  join National Car Rental's Emerald Club.


[TV] Toob Notes

I made the switch from Roku + Sling to Chromecast + YouTube TV.  Why? Well, the Roku was behaving strangely. Sound and video would get out of sync and the unit would need to be re-started.  Experience tells me that when electronics start to do things like that, they do not get better.  I gave up Sling for YouTube TV because YouTube TV has a better channel selection and while it is a bit more expensive, it is not so much more expensive now that Sling has increased their prices.  An economist would say I was on the margin and the $5/month increase pushed me across the margin.

The other reason I did this is that while doing perfunctory research I came to the conclusion that both Chromecast and YouTube TV are best-in-class right now.


The downside to all this is that Google (Google, er…Alphabet owns Chromecast and YouTube TV) now has an even larger claim on my life than before (he typed into Google Docs to post on Google's Blogger).  Ah well, one thing I need to internalize is that these streaming services can come and go as fast as you want them to.  Canceling one and adding another is maybe a 10 minute operation at most.  If I get fearful or frustrated with Google I can snag an Amazon Fire TV device and switch to Hulu + live in a trice.  Maybe persistent and randomly spaced rotations through the services are the best way to keep our tech overlords confused.


Against all odds, I have actually found interesting things to watch.  I won't call them good, just interesting or entertaining.  


  • Tulsa King -- I'm a big fan of Stallone, but whatever he did to get himself in shape for Rocky Balboa he has clearly abandoned (7 years makes all the difference), also, he's 76 years old so...  Mob legend gets out of prison and his "family" relocates him from Brooklyn to Tulsa OK where he will be free to do as he pleases.  Standard mob guy stuff, but leveled up by really fine acting and writing that doesn't overplay the fish out of water angle.  Highly entertaining.  
  • Derry Girls -- we follow a group of potty mouthed high school girls in Northern Ireland during the Time of Troubles.  Myguess is that it was supposed to be a view on the clash of kids living a standard high school life in the midst of violence.  The message here is that the violence really did not have a big impact on them because it's just a high school comedy with the occasional hint of military in the background. Irish people are inherently funny so it's good for a laugh.  It gets more hacky and tone deaf as they run out of ideas, but it has a good run at the outset.  Worth a look.
  • Letterkenny -- Season 13 now is it?  A short, 6 episode slate of the classic of stupid Canadian humor. I suspect it suffers from creator Jared Keeso's attention to his new series -- the excellent Shoresy - but it still has its moment or two, and it's still very Canadian.  One scene is about 5 minutes of nothing but plays-on-words of hockey player names.  Probably not worth it unless you're already a Letterkenny fan, and even then, it's mostly a hash of tropes from previous seasons. 

[Roaring 20s] Roaring 20s 2.0 Follow Up

Addendums to previously discussed topics.

  • Scott Alexander on crypto -- He finds some reasons to not abandon crypto in the face of the current meltdown.  He is right that it's a good thing to have the technology available and functional even if it doesn't change the world.  Crypto needs to 1) rebuild trust (learning the lessons of a thousand years of finance all over again), 2) Find a use case that isn't of dubious morality.
  • Politics of ChatGPT -- ChatGPT is still all the rage.  This post explores where it stands on politics.  It seems it is over to the left.
  • Fake blade runner dialog -- Using the previously discussed Stable Diffusion in conjunction with ChatGPT, this is a machine generated homage to Rutger Hauer's famous Blade Runner soliloquy. Pretty believable.
  • Winners and losers of latest AI -- Tyler Cowen wonders who will benefit and lose from the new level of AI.