[Covid19] Coronatime, Month 6

I am going to try to be shorter and unranty this month because I have little new to say, other than I continue to think I am right about masks being less important that everyone thinks. (Notice how I didn't say not important, I said less important than everyone thinks.) Data is coming in to suggest that is so.

This twitter thread finds from looking at Louisiana that mask mandates didn't seem to have much effect. Reading between the lines also notes that popular perception of mandates differs from reality. Places that are spoken of as having differing mandates often have the same mandates. That is to say, people are assuming the place with the lower infection rate has tougher mandates, when in fact they are identical. Cart before horse. Again, not that masks aren't important, just that a small percentage of people engaged in silly protests doesn't really matter.

This egghead paper based on mounds of data worldwide comes to the conclusion that what they call NPI (non-pharmaceutical intervention), that is to say masks and distancing and lockdowns, has had minimal effect on the growth of fatalities, and they actually hint that there is something else at play -- something unknown.

I am as guilty as the next person is of promoting that which proves me right, and this is what I have been going on about for the past three months.

Also, here is an FAQ on aerosol transmission, which appears to be the primary path of transmission, which is why we are all wearing masks. A key passage:

Clearly there is aerosol transmission in shared rooms, as has occurred in many superspreading events. But a very clear pattern emerges, that indoors is needed for superspreading, and it is helped by long time, crowding, low ventilation, no masks, and talking and especially singing / yelling. E.g. lots of outbreaks occur in choirs / bars / meat packing with high attack rates, but none have been reported, (to our knowledge) in Japan's subways, or in movie theaters where there is almost no talking and better ventilation.

I'm probably going to get on a hobby horse about widely installing HEPA filters in ventilation systems as a thing that would deeply reduce the likelihood of superspreading. Seems like a simple thing that would give us a lot more flexibility in what activities we can do safely and what businesses could be reopened.

One last comment. For those that think the rush to open up is just about money or convenience, the shutdown (and probably the riots) are taking a huge toll on people prone to anxiety or depression, including people I care deeply about. We should not be casual and flippant about re-opening, but neither should we about the restrictions.