Still on lockdown -- still social distancing, still working from home, still desperately looking for excuses to run to the grocery store or fill the gas tank ro get out of the house for any reason at all. Michigan stay-at-home is until May 30th at the soonest.
I am finding ways to stay active and for the moment anyway, my day-to-day activities are still minorly impacted. I'm still employed, which is a saving grace. I'm getting enough exercise -- running, biking, walking, and the odd fitness video. I have been able to get some minor stuff done around the house. Although oddly, no fiction writing. Hmmmm.
I've been doing some pretentious reading. I tried to get into Sartor Resartus by Carlyle, but struggled with his baroque vocabulary and dozen clause sentences. I set it aside but I read enough to know I'd like to get back to it. Now I'm going through Thus Spoke Zarathustra -- Nietszche is all the rage in certain corners of the internet. I do need to mix in some more Maigret of Nero Wolfe to keep my head from exploding.
[TV] Toob Notes
[Rant] Coronatime, Month 2
[Rant] Lucky or Smart
Sunday, May 10, 2020
[TV] Toob Notes
Tiger King
Yeah I got sucked into it like everyone else. Dear God what a festival of dysfunction!
Before I get to the show itself, let me start by saying I don't think exotic animals should be imported or bred for captivity. That said, I'm not sure how I justify that opinion. At some point in human history there were no domesticated animals, that is to say all animals were exotic in a sense. If people like me held sway throughout history there would be no domestication of wolves, and horses would never have been used for transportation. So how do I know that Tiger King and his ilk aren't just on the leading edge of a new human/animal partnership? Another thing is that it's clear that some of the folks in this documentary gain deep satisfaction from caring for these animals, especially the tigers. In my uncertainty, am I in a position to deny them that? What rights non-humans have under natural law is not a settled issue.
Sometimes I wish I could just be like most other people. Form incompletely reasoned opinions based on my gut and decide they are correct and certain then just get on with my life.
Yes, the characters in Tiger King are jaw-droppingly extreme. But perhaps equally impressive is the structure of the series itself. The first episode is just about some crazy weirdo who has a zoo. Then it builds. We see that there is a little subculture of exotic animal zoo keepers and they are all weirdos. Then we see they have a blood feud with a woman who is trying to shut them down. Then we see the woman trying to shut them down has a missing rich husband who was declared dead under suspicious circumstances and she may not be as saintly as she seems. The dead husband's family believes she killed him and her current husband --also wealthy -- is not exactly an alpha male. Then we see keeping exotic pets seems to go hand in hand with -- how to put this precisely? -- uncommon sexual relationships. Then things really start to get wild. There is an accidental suicide, criminals and conmen are everywhere, one of the wierdos clearly has turned his zoo into a cult-ish type organization with a Mason-esque troop of enraptured young girls. The pinnacle is a supposed murder-for-hire plot when at last the the FBI shuts everything down and makes arrests.
Here's the thing: It's all real. It is utterly, outrageously unbelievable but it is all real. Often you can see how a documentarian has manipulated facts to make things seem wild and bombastic, but honestly, it would be hard for me to make any sort of case that these were reasonable people being misrepresented. And I didn't even touch on many of the crazy details like the country songs, and the race for governor, and the boob jobs, and the drug dealers.
Fiction is dead, it cant compete.
Breaking: Nick Cage to play Joe Exotic in a scripted mini-series. Because of course he is. However weird you get, there is always something weirder.
Better Call Saul
This was Kim's season. She had convinced herself that her purpose was to do good. To make compromises to find ways to help the helpless; to defend the noble unwashed that the system is screwing. But after having to brazen her way through some tough, and in one case life-threatening, situations along with seeing the ultimate futility of pro bono. She appears to buy into the crooked life, wholeheartedly. This is Vince Gilligan's stock-in-trade. How events drive decent people down paths they should know better than to go down.
(I say "appears" because there is the outside possibility that she is either testing JImmy or outright conning him. I wouldn't put either past her.)
As far as character development goes, that was really about it for the season. The Jimmy/Mike/Nacho/Gus/Lalo story was strong, but really just a standard drug dealer plotline. No one found new aspects to their life or personality.
Better Call Saul is still a terrific show but it has yet to re-achieve the high point of the Jimmy versus Chuck drama of the first couple of seasons. With one more season to go I honestly wonder if it will. It may, like it's predecessor Breaking Bad just finish its last season as a top quality crime story. Nothing bad about that.
Yeah I got sucked into it like everyone else. Dear God what a festival of dysfunction!
Before I get to the show itself, let me start by saying I don't think exotic animals should be imported or bred for captivity. That said, I'm not sure how I justify that opinion. At some point in human history there were no domesticated animals, that is to say all animals were exotic in a sense. If people like me held sway throughout history there would be no domestication of wolves, and horses would never have been used for transportation. So how do I know that Tiger King and his ilk aren't just on the leading edge of a new human/animal partnership? Another thing is that it's clear that some of the folks in this documentary gain deep satisfaction from caring for these animals, especially the tigers. In my uncertainty, am I in a position to deny them that? What rights non-humans have under natural law is not a settled issue.
Sometimes I wish I could just be like most other people. Form incompletely reasoned opinions based on my gut and decide they are correct and certain then just get on with my life.
Yes, the characters in Tiger King are jaw-droppingly extreme. But perhaps equally impressive is the structure of the series itself. The first episode is just about some crazy weirdo who has a zoo. Then it builds. We see that there is a little subculture of exotic animal zoo keepers and they are all weirdos. Then we see they have a blood feud with a woman who is trying to shut them down. Then we see the woman trying to shut them down has a missing rich husband who was declared dead under suspicious circumstances and she may not be as saintly as she seems. The dead husband's family believes she killed him and her current husband --also wealthy -- is not exactly an alpha male. Then we see keeping exotic pets seems to go hand in hand with -- how to put this precisely? -- uncommon sexual relationships. Then things really start to get wild. There is an accidental suicide, criminals and conmen are everywhere, one of the wierdos clearly has turned his zoo into a cult-ish type organization with a Mason-esque troop of enraptured young girls. The pinnacle is a supposed murder-for-hire plot when at last the the FBI shuts everything down and makes arrests.
Here's the thing: It's all real. It is utterly, outrageously unbelievable but it is all real. Often you can see how a documentarian has manipulated facts to make things seem wild and bombastic, but honestly, it would be hard for me to make any sort of case that these were reasonable people being misrepresented. And I didn't even touch on many of the crazy details like the country songs, and the race for governor, and the boob jobs, and the drug dealers.
Fiction is dead, it cant compete.
Breaking: Nick Cage to play Joe Exotic in a scripted mini-series. Because of course he is. However weird you get, there is always something weirder.
Better Call Saul
This was Kim's season. She had convinced herself that her purpose was to do good. To make compromises to find ways to help the helpless; to defend the noble unwashed that the system is screwing. But after having to brazen her way through some tough, and in one case life-threatening, situations along with seeing the ultimate futility of pro bono. She appears to buy into the crooked life, wholeheartedly. This is Vince Gilligan's stock-in-trade. How events drive decent people down paths they should know better than to go down.
(I say "appears" because there is the outside possibility that she is either testing JImmy or outright conning him. I wouldn't put either past her.)
As far as character development goes, that was really about it for the season. The Jimmy/Mike/Nacho/Gus/Lalo story was strong, but really just a standard drug dealer plotline. No one found new aspects to their life or personality.
Better Call Saul is still a terrific show but it has yet to re-achieve the high point of the Jimmy versus Chuck drama of the first couple of seasons. With one more season to go I honestly wonder if it will. It may, like it's predecessor Breaking Bad just finish its last season as a top quality crime story. Nothing bad about that.
[Covid19, Rant] Coronatime, Month 2
The conflict is between economic disaster and more deaths. That may be slightly hyperbolic, but essentially it's accurate. The bias to this date has been towards preventing more deaths, and that has probably been right, but there will come a point where that changes. It is certain that at some point the shut down will cause irreparable harm. If we don't see that point and react we're going to be in bad shape long after the virus is a fading memory. Financial disasters happen slowly, then all at once.
The truth is nobody knows much of anything. Not politicians, not epidemiologists, not economists. Every theory that is put forward is countered by an equally plausible opposite theory. Every piece of data is confounded by a conflicting piece of data. If you don't see this, you aren't reading widely enough. There is no point where you can guarantee re-opening won't cause an extra death, or ten extra deaths, or a hundred, or a thousand. Whatever point you choose, people will die that wouldn't have otherwise. Any point we re-open will be wrong. It will either be too early or too late.
It's an ugly state of affairs with virtually no certainly in anything, but we won't treat it that way. We won't acknowledge our uncertainty and, because of that, be tolerant of opinions and decisions that run counter to our own. We will do what we always do, build a story in our head based on our biases and assumptions, delude ourselves that it is objectively correct, and accuse anyone who disagrees of being reprehensible. And use our hindsight as a bludgeon later on.
I have my own story.
Here in Michigan the Governor is antagonising everybody. She has assumed emergency powers, keeps things shut, and explains little, just declares her good intentions. If she has her way, next month I will have to eventually write Coronatime, month 8. I don't think she's handling this very well as a point of political practicality, but expressing such an opinion would simply get me lumped in with the armed protestors marching on the capital. Meanwhile her attorney general has accused people who want restrictions lifted of racism. Yep, that's our world (are you a contributor?).
I do know one thing for certain. I will be on the first plane to the first state that legitimately opens up. I shall get a haircut, go to a gym, have food and drink somewhere nice, and not feel the slightest bit guilty. Addenda: Here is the best and clearest scientific assessment of Covid-19 I have seen. If you read this and decide that it confirms what you believed about how we should proceed, you should make every effort to reassess how biased you are.
The truth is nobody knows much of anything. Not politicians, not epidemiologists, not economists. Every theory that is put forward is countered by an equally plausible opposite theory. Every piece of data is confounded by a conflicting piece of data. If you don't see this, you aren't reading widely enough. There is no point where you can guarantee re-opening won't cause an extra death, or ten extra deaths, or a hundred, or a thousand. Whatever point you choose, people will die that wouldn't have otherwise. Any point we re-open will be wrong. It will either be too early or too late.
It's an ugly state of affairs with virtually no certainly in anything, but we won't treat it that way. We won't acknowledge our uncertainty and, because of that, be tolerant of opinions and decisions that run counter to our own. We will do what we always do, build a story in our head based on our biases and assumptions, delude ourselves that it is objectively correct, and accuse anyone who disagrees of being reprehensible. And use our hindsight as a bludgeon later on.
I have my own story.
- I think the lockdown needs to be loosened via targeting. Things like making special arrangements for the most vulnerable but opening things up for the young and healthy. Keeping things tight in highly infected and dense areas but opening things up elsewhere, rather than keep entire States shut down.
- I think we are underestimating the economic cost at the moment for two reasons:
- The economic assistance that was rendered, especially the unemployment increase and the $1200 advance, have done a lot of good but is unsustainable and may be impossible to repeat should this go longer.
- Policy makers are not in any immediate danger financially and so probably don't have the sense of urgency they should have about economic damage.
- I think we need to seriously consider variolation (intentionally infecting healthy volunteers) to build immunity. The soonest estimate I have seen for a vaccine is fall, flattening the curve for that long through lockdown is a recipe for financial disaster for a trivial benefit in mortality reduction.
Here in Michigan the Governor is antagonising everybody. She has assumed emergency powers, keeps things shut, and explains little, just declares her good intentions. If she has her way, next month I will have to eventually write Coronatime, month 8. I don't think she's handling this very well as a point of political practicality, but expressing such an opinion would simply get me lumped in with the armed protestors marching on the capital. Meanwhile her attorney general has accused people who want restrictions lifted of racism. Yep, that's our world (are you a contributor?).
I do know one thing for certain. I will be on the first plane to the first state that legitimately opens up. I shall get a haircut, go to a gym, have food and drink somewhere nice, and not feel the slightest bit guilty. Addenda: Here is the best and clearest scientific assessment of Covid-19 I have seen. If you read this and decide that it confirms what you believed about how we should proceed, you should make every effort to reassess how biased you are.
[Rant] Lucky or Smart
Sorry to go on about Coronavirus, but it's really all that is happening now. There is no issue or concern that is not related to it somehow -- except maybe the murder hornets.
As I mentioned, I am very lucky. The biggest reason for that is I still have my job. I work in software development for a global, Fortune 500 conglomerate. The work is what I would call government/regulatory-adjacent so while there will certainly be a hit to revenue, it will be much smaller than most. I haven't heard anything about possible layoffs and no contractors have been let go (I assume they would be first). The only hint of any problems has been a hiring freeze and gently worded announcements to please try to curtail expenses as much as possible. I suspect what will happen this year is that raises and bonuses will be eliminated for the time being.
Even better, I can work from home in relative comfort. So although my retirement plans took a hit -- when you're 59 you don't have decades to recover -- I really have no urgent money worries. I live in a big house in a comfortable, borderline rural, neighborhood with plenty of space and opportunities to get exercise outdoors. My biggest concerns are that I hate wearing a mask and I can't go to the gym.
Why am I cataloging this? Well, partially because there is really nothing else to write about these days (Yes, I know. I should write fiction.), but mostly because I want to understand what it says about me.
First of all, my current state should make any opinion I have about the need to extend restrictions highly suspect. As a corollary I should be very wary of dismissing the opinions of re-openers because I simply am not having the same experience as them. We might all be in this together, but we are not all in this equally.
But more interesting to me is what it means for me to say "I'm lucky." That is to ask, how much of my relatively happy circumstance is just chance versus will? Have I done smart things and made good decisions to get here, or did I just happen to stumble down a path that is letting me ride this out in comparative comfort?
Much of this hinges on financial security. I had some timely advantages here. First I inadvertently took a long time to graduate from college. But that effectively allowed me to work my way through. I took out a small loan when I was a sophomore, just a couple thousand dollars, but I was able to pay that off before I even graduated. When I was young I benefited from a gift of a car from my grandmother when I graduated college. I was wise enough to choose a Toyota which gave me 9 years of service. So that was nine years at the start of my adult life, when many people are accumulating debt that will hinder them for many years, where I got a head start. Is that luck? In some sense it is. It was not my plan, it just sort of worked out that way, but still it was my nature that allowed me to make the choices for it to happen without letting missteps undermine me. (Is my nature a matter of having good luck? Perhaps.)
This is not to say that everything worked out easily. I have a remarkable inability to find a job when I need one. This surprises people who know me who seem to think I am a pretty solid candidate for work -- I am very thoughtful, relatively diligent, personable when I try to be, though quite introverted. I am not the sort of person you would think to have trouble finding employment, but the two extended stretches of my life where I was unemployed were excruciatingly frustrating. In both cases, after months of effort, I ended up with jobs that I was quite underqualified for just to stay solvent. Does that count as bad luck? Or is it my fault for not playing the networking game and preparing better for interviews and being less, well, introverted. (Is my nature a matter of having bad luck? Perhaps.)
That brings me to the two things that allow me to be as comfortable as I am. One of those lousy jobs directly led the job I currently have and have been at for 27 years. My career advancement has been virtually non-existent, but it has been unwaveringly steady the whole time. My salary has grown equally steadily, and my 401k along with it. I have done nothing stupid with the money. I have mostly invested my savings conventionally. I travelled quite a bit, but never at great expense. Since that initial Toyota I have owned exactly 3 other cars, paid in full at purchase; I have never had a car payment. I purchased a condo which I lived in for 15 years which I recouped 100% at sale (no profit, but still better than renting). Was all that good luck? Again, I didn't pick the company thinking it was a place I could work and financially grow for nearly three decades, but I also didn't job hop around hoping to stumble on an amazing opportunity and a shot at the c-suite. I know folks who did that and are caught out of work now, at the worst time possible. Essentially I inadvertently took a low risk path. Was I lucky to stumble on that path? Probably. Was I wise to appreciate it and stay on it? Also, probably. Was my wisdom the result of my nature? Maybe. (Is my nature a matter of luck? Perhaps.)
Almost certainly, though, the biggest thing that contributed to my financial well-being has been not having a family. Raising children is where the bulk of people spend their money over their lives; many would argue it is the reason for the money to begin with. Though having a family at this exact point in time is a tremendous stressor, not just financially, I suspect very few people are serious thinking that they wish they hadn't started a family because it would be much easier on them right now. Without going into excruciating personal detail, not having a family is definitely the result of my nature. Few people would say someone who's nature drove them to never have a family was lucky, except perhaps in the case of pandemic.
There is no telling if my nature is a matter of luck or not, good or bad.
All this leads me to see this crisis as playing to my strengths. I am able to help out my friends in many ways. Provide some back-up, so to speak; be of value to those who have built up social capital with me. I am not under any tremendous stress (yet). That in itself is a form of luck. The crisis that happened is the crisis I happened to be well prepared for. I'm sure there are other crises that would devastate me and have me at my wit's end. The extent to which my current circumstances are the result of luck I can't say. I can say I am lucky that this crisis was one that I was set for.
So this post was my gut check. Am I doing this right? Acknowledge my good fortune. Support the people I care about as needed. Recognize that most people are living a very different experience than me, and respect that.
Yes, I think I'm doing OK.
As I mentioned, I am very lucky. The biggest reason for that is I still have my job. I work in software development for a global, Fortune 500 conglomerate. The work is what I would call government/regulatory-adjacent so while there will certainly be a hit to revenue, it will be much smaller than most. I haven't heard anything about possible layoffs and no contractors have been let go (I assume they would be first). The only hint of any problems has been a hiring freeze and gently worded announcements to please try to curtail expenses as much as possible. I suspect what will happen this year is that raises and bonuses will be eliminated for the time being.
Even better, I can work from home in relative comfort. So although my retirement plans took a hit -- when you're 59 you don't have decades to recover -- I really have no urgent money worries. I live in a big house in a comfortable, borderline rural, neighborhood with plenty of space and opportunities to get exercise outdoors. My biggest concerns are that I hate wearing a mask and I can't go to the gym.
Why am I cataloging this? Well, partially because there is really nothing else to write about these days (Yes, I know. I should write fiction.), but mostly because I want to understand what it says about me.
First of all, my current state should make any opinion I have about the need to extend restrictions highly suspect. As a corollary I should be very wary of dismissing the opinions of re-openers because I simply am not having the same experience as them. We might all be in this together, but we are not all in this equally.
But more interesting to me is what it means for me to say "I'm lucky." That is to ask, how much of my relatively happy circumstance is just chance versus will? Have I done smart things and made good decisions to get here, or did I just happen to stumble down a path that is letting me ride this out in comparative comfort?
Much of this hinges on financial security. I had some timely advantages here. First I inadvertently took a long time to graduate from college. But that effectively allowed me to work my way through. I took out a small loan when I was a sophomore, just a couple thousand dollars, but I was able to pay that off before I even graduated. When I was young I benefited from a gift of a car from my grandmother when I graduated college. I was wise enough to choose a Toyota which gave me 9 years of service. So that was nine years at the start of my adult life, when many people are accumulating debt that will hinder them for many years, where I got a head start. Is that luck? In some sense it is. It was not my plan, it just sort of worked out that way, but still it was my nature that allowed me to make the choices for it to happen without letting missteps undermine me. (Is my nature a matter of having good luck? Perhaps.)
This is not to say that everything worked out easily. I have a remarkable inability to find a job when I need one. This surprises people who know me who seem to think I am a pretty solid candidate for work -- I am very thoughtful, relatively diligent, personable when I try to be, though quite introverted. I am not the sort of person you would think to have trouble finding employment, but the two extended stretches of my life where I was unemployed were excruciatingly frustrating. In both cases, after months of effort, I ended up with jobs that I was quite underqualified for just to stay solvent. Does that count as bad luck? Or is it my fault for not playing the networking game and preparing better for interviews and being less, well, introverted. (Is my nature a matter of having bad luck? Perhaps.)
That brings me to the two things that allow me to be as comfortable as I am. One of those lousy jobs directly led the job I currently have and have been at for 27 years. My career advancement has been virtually non-existent, but it has been unwaveringly steady the whole time. My salary has grown equally steadily, and my 401k along with it. I have done nothing stupid with the money. I have mostly invested my savings conventionally. I travelled quite a bit, but never at great expense. Since that initial Toyota I have owned exactly 3 other cars, paid in full at purchase; I have never had a car payment. I purchased a condo which I lived in for 15 years which I recouped 100% at sale (no profit, but still better than renting). Was all that good luck? Again, I didn't pick the company thinking it was a place I could work and financially grow for nearly three decades, but I also didn't job hop around hoping to stumble on an amazing opportunity and a shot at the c-suite. I know folks who did that and are caught out of work now, at the worst time possible. Essentially I inadvertently took a low risk path. Was I lucky to stumble on that path? Probably. Was I wise to appreciate it and stay on it? Also, probably. Was my wisdom the result of my nature? Maybe. (Is my nature a matter of luck? Perhaps.)
Almost certainly, though, the biggest thing that contributed to my financial well-being has been not having a family. Raising children is where the bulk of people spend their money over their lives; many would argue it is the reason for the money to begin with. Though having a family at this exact point in time is a tremendous stressor, not just financially, I suspect very few people are serious thinking that they wish they hadn't started a family because it would be much easier on them right now. Without going into excruciating personal detail, not having a family is definitely the result of my nature. Few people would say someone who's nature drove them to never have a family was lucky, except perhaps in the case of pandemic.
There is no telling if my nature is a matter of luck or not, good or bad.
All this leads me to see this crisis as playing to my strengths. I am able to help out my friends in many ways. Provide some back-up, so to speak; be of value to those who have built up social capital with me. I am not under any tremendous stress (yet). That in itself is a form of luck. The crisis that happened is the crisis I happened to be well prepared for. I'm sure there are other crises that would devastate me and have me at my wit's end. The extent to which my current circumstances are the result of luck I can't say. I can say I am lucky that this crisis was one that I was set for.
So this post was my gut check. Am I doing this right? Acknowledge my good fortune. Support the people I care about as needed. Recognize that most people are living a very different experience than me, and respect that.
Yes, I think I'm doing OK.
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