[Covid19, Rant] Coronatime, Month 2

The conflict is between economic disaster and more deaths. That may be slightly hyperbolic, but essentially it's accurate. The bias to this date has been towards preventing more deaths, and that has probably been right, but there will come a point where that changes. It is certain that at some point the shut down will cause irreparable harm. If we don't see that point and react we're going to be in bad shape long after the virus is a fading memory. Financial disasters happen slowly, then all at once.

The truth is nobody knows much of anything. Not politicians, not epidemiologists, not economists. Every theory that is put forward is countered by an equally plausible opposite theory. Every piece of data is confounded by a conflicting piece of data. If you don't see this, you aren't reading widely enough. There is no point where you can guarantee re-opening won't cause an extra death, or ten extra deaths, or a hundred, or a thousand. Whatever point you choose, people will die that wouldn't have otherwise. Any point we re-open will be wrong. It will either be too early or too late.

It's an ugly state of affairs with virtually no certainly in anything, but we won't treat it that way. We won't acknowledge our uncertainty and, because of that, be tolerant of opinions and decisions that run counter to our own. We will do what we always do, build a story in our head based on our biases and assumptions, delude ourselves that it is objectively correct, and accuse anyone who disagrees of being reprehensible. And use our hindsight as a bludgeon later on.

I have my own story.

• I think the lockdown needs to be loosened via targeting. Things like making special arrangements for the most vulnerable but opening things up for the young and healthy. Keeping things tight in highly infected and dense areas but opening things up elsewhere, rather than keep entire States shut down.
• I think we are underestimating the economic cost at the moment for two reasons:
  1. The economic assistance that was rendered, especially the unemployment increase and the $1200 advance, have done a lot of good but is unsustainable and may be impossible to repeat should this go longer.
  2. Policy makers are not in any immediate danger financially and so probably don't have the sense of urgency they should have about economic damage.
• I think we need to seriously consider variolation (intentionally infecting healthy volunteers) to build immunity. The soonest estimate I have seen for a vaccine is fall, flattening the curve for that long through lockdown is a recipe for financial disaster for a trivial benefit in mortality reduction.

My story is as valid as yours, as biased towards my priors as yours, and as worthless as yours.

Here in Michigan the Governor is antagonising everybody. She has assumed emergency powers, keeps things shut, and explains little, just declares her good intentions. If she has her way, next month I will have to eventually write Coronatime, month 8. I don't think she's handling this very well as a point of political practicality, but expressing such an opinion would simply get me lumped in with the armed protestors marching on the capital. Meanwhile her attorney general has accused people who want restrictions lifted of racism. Yep, that's our world (are you a contributor?).

I do know one thing for certain. I will be on the first plane to the first state that legitimately opens up. I shall get a haircut, go to a gym, have food and drink somewhere nice, and not feel the slightest bit guilty. Addenda: Here is the best and clearest scientific assessment of Covid-19 I have seen. If you read this and decide that it confirms what you believed about how we should proceed, you should make every effort to reassess how biased you are.