Tuesday, February 07, 2023

The Month That Was - January 2023

For the 63rd time I increment the year count. The year count has come to mean pretty much nothing to me.  I am fast asleep by midnight on the 31st.  Frankly, so is everyone I know.  Or if they are not, they are mindlessly watching a ball drop on TV amidst a parade of crappy musical performances by people I've never heard of.  Yawn.  

I'm trying to think back on if I had any memorable New Year's Eves.  I recall one time when I was a freshman in college and a group got together over winter break for a bit of a party.  It was a happy bunch, and since we were at someone's house, rather than a bar or a dorm, everyone was fairly well behaved.  The year was rolling over into 1980 and I recall the frequently verbalized sentiment was that the '70s were awful, let's hope the '80s are better.  I think they were.  In my recollection, the '80s were vastly superior to the '70s.  For completeness, the 90s were on par with the '80s; everything since has been a homogenous blob of "just OK" with some bright spots here and there.


Strangely, other than that I have only a couple passing memories of specific New Year's Eves.  I recall taking a train trip with a long ago ex-girlfriend to Toronto one year and mostly being bored and annoyed. I recall one wherein I did a midnight 5k run through Ann Arbor with another long ago ex, ending up with drinks in a downtown bar that no longer exists.  Other than those, I can't identify a single specific NYE memory.


Good. Maybe that means I don't feel the need to wait for a demarcation to make a change or adjust my life.  Maybe I'm advanced enough to see things as a continuum -- an eternal on-going effort to improve and grow.  Maybe I'm just beyond all the silly shenanigans that surround it.


Or maybe I'm just a wet blanket. 


[Travel] Seaside Sojourn

[Rant] Something Less Than Human

[Cars] Not Quite Yet


[Travel] Seaside Sojourn

I was once again down in my Southern Command Center in Savannah from whence the S.O. and I made a weekend road trip down the Florida Atlantic Coast to Palm Beach, where one of her sons lives.

The travel itself was a cinch. Straight down I-95 from start to finish.  It being January and tourist season in FL I would have expected a lot more traffic than we got.  One (relatively) new benefit is the existence of Buc-ees, now in Florida.  Buc-ees was formerly a Texas-only asset, but in the past few years they have spread throughout the South.  You can think of Buc-ees as a sort of rest stop theme park.  Everything you would normally find at say a Pilot or a Loves is cranked to 11 at Buc-ees. The food is rest stop food, but better.  The jerky options are endless.  The assorted t-shirts and hats and knick-knacks are even more cheesy.  And most importantly, the bathrooms are huge and CLEAN.  It's really quite remarkable -- Disney levels of maintenance and service.  And, I suspect, quite profitable.  The one in Daytona Beach is packed from morning until night.  Most of my respectable friends would likely sneer at it, but I think it's quite an achievement, speaking as someone who has spent his fair share of time waiting in line to access a filthy, partially functional solo men's room in a gas station and hoping the sad looking burrito in the warmer isn't toxic.  God Bless Buc-ees.


In my view I divide Palm Beach into three distinct areas.  First is Palm Beach island proper.  This is what most people think of.  It's where Worth Avenue is and where The Donald's Mar-a-Lago is and where lifestyles of the rich and famous are a reality.  


Once on the Mainland, you are in West Palm Beach.  If Palm Beach is the front of the house, West Palm is the back of the house.  There are some gritty areas where the folks who staff the hotels and restaurants and resorts live, but it's not without charm.  There are a couple of very nice commercial areas in West Palm Beach.  There is City Place -- an upscale open air shopping and recreation mall.  Very cool spot.  They have a central lawn with live music, an AMC theater, even an outdoor Soul Cycle, in addition to an endless supply of restaurants and stores, including the national chains.  A few blocks north of that is Clematis Street -- more youthful and party oriented, the shops are funkier and bars louder.


The Third area is Singer Island, the island immediately north of Palm Beach proper, with the main town being Palm Beach Shores. It's a nice, homey spot.  Call it upper-middle class vs. the ultra-high end Palm Beach to the south.  Most everything is a short walk to the beach. It's a good compromise between Palm Beach and West Palm Beach. 


Accommodations-wise, West Palm is pretty standard Florida rates.  Moving to Palm Beach Shores you get a noticeable increase in prices due to proximity to the beach, but not outrageous.  On Palm Beach Island you get places like The Breakers for $2500 per night.  When I hit the lottery, it will be one of my first stops.


Though our tri[ was brief and family-visit oriented, we were able to steal away one day for a brief walk down the storied Worth Avenue. Yes purchases were made, although mine were confined to gelato, then a drive south on A1A among the luxury estates along the oceanfront to my favorite town on the Atlantic Coast, Delray Beach. 


Now, it had been a decade or so since I had been to Delray and let's just say an awful lot of people must have shared my opinion.  My memories of a quaint beach town were dashed.  It was crowded as everywhere else on the Coast. And yet, it retained its charm.  It's an easy walk down Atlantic Ave with its shops and restaurants, ending in a pavilion on the beach. What was a flagship Marriott hotel has been replaced and renovated by the Opal Grand Resort where you can grab a delightful drink and snack at the open air Drift bar.  Despite the changes, Delray remains my favorite spot on the Atlantic side.


But nothing during this trip changed my preference for my beloved Gulf Coast.  I can't honestly say the Gulf side is less busy.  I know traveling down I-95 (Atlantic) this trip was vastly easier and faster than a similar trip down I-75 (Gulf).  The Atlantic Coast has a few oases of sanity.  I'm told places like Port St. Lucie or Vero Beach are not yet insane, and perhaps that's true.  But I just don't think the ocean side has anything to compare to, oh, Boca Grande or Crystal River.  


There is just a level of intensity on the ocean that isn't there on the gulf. The suggestion has been made that it is because East Coasters settle on the ocean side and midwesterners settle on the gulf.  So be it.  I don't intend to buck that trend.


[Rant] Something Less Than Human

Someone who was my age now (62.5) at the time of my birth was born into a world where Queen Victoria was still ruling the Empire and a person could pretty much travel and live anywhere without justification or the approval of authority and, for the most part, pretend to be whomever he chose.  (See The World of Yesterday.)   Interestingly, that time would also see the first use of the word "computer" and the first organization dedicated to LGBT rights.  Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose, eh?

To quote the above mentioned The World of Yesterday:


None of these young people believed their parents, the politicians or their teachers. Every state decree was read with distrust. The postwar generation [post-WW1] emancipated itself with a sudden, violent reaction...Anyone or anything not their own age was finished, out-of-date, done for...School councils...were set up, with young people keeping a sharp eye on the teachers and making their own changes to the curriculum, because children wanted to learn only what they liked. Girls had their hair cut in such short bobs that they could not be told from boys; young men shaved off their beards to look more like girls. Homosexuality and lesbianism were very much in fashion, not as a result of a young person's instinctive drives, but in protest against all the old traditional, legal and moral kinds of love.


A lesson I learned far too late in life is the people of the past were no different from us.  None of the motivating ideas of Wokeness that so entrance the youth are new.  They in fact, were born from the very people the movement looks upon as morally backwards and reprehensible.  For balance, none of the ideas of what has been called the New Right or the Dark Enlightenment (or whatever euphemism is being used today) is new.  At least, to their credit, they believe that is a feature, not a bug.  The nature of humanity is the same as it always was.  We delude ourselves that we are different out of hubris.


And yet, the past is a foreign country.  We can read of their habits and manners and be amused or appalled or confused.  To pick on a cliche example, slavery was broadly accepted as normal for most of the world's history.  (No, I'm not just referring to slavery in the Old South, which seems to be the only one anyone thinks of anymore.)  We can't understand how this could be.  How do we reconcile the fact that these humans were exactly like us, yet manifested behaviors we can't fathom?


I can only think that there are certain behavior patterns that are endemically human, perhaps encoded in our DNA or perhaps so foundational to our social beings that you can easily track them through time.  But they can ultimately manifest in behaviors that are almost 180 degrees opposed to each other.  For example, an innate sense of fairness can lead us to conflict whether it is applied to outcomes or opportunities.  An instinct for defiance can lead to embrace or repulsion.  A desire for security can lead us to conform or isolate.


What people mean when they describe a piece of literature as timeless is that the core themes emphasized are those behaviors that survive over time, as opposed to "ripped from the headlines" narratives. 


This is where I start yelling at clouds.  Feel free to bail.


In the current age, drama, in the form of TV and Movies and, to some extent, stage plays, gets created almost on a whim. There are so many productions that it's impossible to keep track.  How many streaming channels are producing original content.  Beyond that content from across the globe is readily available.  As recently as 20 years ago it was possible to have at least a decent enough grip on the market output to know whether something was worth watching or not and feel confident that you were able to keep up on most of the worthwhile releases.


No longer.  The quantity produced is too great now to even begin to survey a large portion of it.  And, as we know, when quantity goes up quality goes down.  The thing is, dramatizing timeless themes is hard.  It takes insight and consideration to even identify them and it takes talent, sweat, and toil to dramatize them.  The talent to do so does not increase anywhere near the rate the quantity of drama increases.  We're now producing so much output that we have reached far outside the talent pool for the needed labor.  


You see it every day. Most streaming services are on a kick now to remake, or reboot, or reimagine -- pick your euphemism -- previously successful works.  Almost all of them fail outright.  The successes are little more than average.  They consist of characters shouting their feelings and intentions at each other so you know what to think; they gender- or race-swap legacy characters and somehow believe that constitutes creativity; they write dialog at a third grade level; they work from formulas that they hope are low risk, but they are just plain low. Honestly, ChatGPT could probably do better.


This is a time where quality drama is so rare that not only is nearly impossible to find, the audience has been so numbed by the content from Disney or Amazon that they don't even realize how truly awful most of it is.  So desensitized to quality are viewers that, were they to watch some truly remarkable they would only see it in terms of what formula it fit.  Show them The Sopranos and they say it was a mob soap opera, instead of seeing it for the tour-de-force portrayal of our human capacity for self-delusion that it is.  


What do you do when you live in such an era? First, convince yourself it can't last forever. Quality never completely disappears, it just gets lost in the shuffle most of the time.  Treasure the good stuff you do find:  Better Call Saul, The Bear.  


Second, resort to the old and timeless.  It's hard to read old books when you've been conditioned (or reconditioned) to Twitter and Instagram, nevermind TikTok.  They are often written in rich, florid sentences that can take a minute to parse. The vocabulary is beyond you and you have to resort to context to understand.  The cultural references of their moment are unrecognizable.  But I have found wonders of similarities to today; I can relate to many of the characters.  Take for instance the common theme of men lost in young adulthood.  In This Side of Paradise (F. Scott Fitzgerald, 1920) we follow privileged young people as they hedonistically make their way through their college years.  Try watching The Graduate (1967) for a take on being adrift in early adulthood.  In The Wrecker (Robert Louis Stevenson, 1896) our lead is a young man who pursued his dream of being an artist against the wishes of his father -- I know many such 20-somethings today. And if you're concerned about the interaction of college an ethnic identity I humbly suggest Apple Pie (David Mazzotta, 1999). 


My pipe dream is that all young people read these and understand their struggles are nothing new. The fears and insecurity that underlie all their false confidence and righteousness are precisely what is expected of them. That thing many of them call depression is just the normal way they are supposed to feel at their age. That it will be a struggle, but they will find a way through it and the world won't end if they compromise or fail.  Basically, that they are OK and can chill out a bit and maybe lay off the Zoloft.


And that maybe everyone will realize that there is nothing special or apocalyptic going on.  That, as always, it is the best of times and the worst of times (another nugget of timeless wisdom from an old book). That they live in a world of endless noise; of tales told by idiots, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing (how could Shakespeare have known about our new cycle -- yes I know that's not exactly what MacBeth meant; work with me).  Then maybe we'd all chill out.  Maybe we could give more thought to our humanity instead of dwelling on our neurosis.  Maybe we could have real tolerance of each other instead of divisive social engineering.  Maybe we could see our own absurdities and laugh at them.  


Maybe there would be something worth watching on TV.


[Cars] Not Quite Yet

I continue to be in the market for a new car, but only softly.  I'm coming up on my standard ownership duration -- 9 years, 150k miles -- on the Acura, so I've put my ear to the ground in the auto market.

A lot of things haven't panned out as expected.  EVs really aren't there for me due to range concerns.  Many get in the 300-350 mile range, but where does that leave me on one of my semi-frequent sojourns to Savannah: crossing my fingers that I find a way to recharge along the way along with occupying myself during the interminable time it takes to do so.  I am very keen on the idea of a hybrid, though.


Another thing I had high hopes for were auto subscription services wherein you make arrangements for the use of a car at any given time -- all maintenance and insurance covered, you just pay for gas.  You can turn it in for a new model at will.  The folks who attempted this were on the luxury side and therefore stratospheric in price, but I had hoped someone would find a way to do this at scale and bring the price down into my range.  Nope. For now it seems unworkable.


So that leaves the operations in the auto market in roughly the same shape it was when I last bought a car.  Of course, there has been upheaval in supply chains and interest rates that have made a hash of things.  Many brands are suffering supply shortages of new vehicles, including Acrua and Lexus/Toyota and the Korean brands.  About the only new cars that are in healthy supply are Jeeps and Buicks.  I have known far too many people who have had nightmarish experiences with Jeeps/Chrysler/Stellantis/Etc. to involve myself with any of those cars.


I have a soft spot for Buicks.  My erstwhile houseguest had two Encores, both were stellar.  Were I to go the Buick route I would want the larger Enclave, but I don't really want to.  As I may have mentioned before, I kind of want a minivan.  Specifically the Toyota Sienna that comes with a hybrid engine.  See, to me, an SUV is just an impractical minivan.  It is better designed to haul stuff and people than an SUV, it just lacks the SUVs "rugged character", which is kind of laughable when you think about it. The minivan can even come with 4WD. A true SUV would work better if you needed to go off road now and then, although let's face it, beyond the added ground clearance, most SUVs aren't intended for anything worse than a gravel driveway.  If you need to tow or haul real loads of stuff, you want a pickup. Modern full-size pickups, for their part, can do just about anything, from carry you and your passengers in Rolls Royce comfort to tow an enormous Airstream.  But full-size pickups are too much car for me.  They are thirsty and awkward to park because of their bulk.  Still, by any measure, an F-150 crew cab with a hybrid twin-turbo V6 and 400 HP is an astonishing feat of engineering.


As for minivans, my choice would be a Toyota Sienna for the hybrid engine. I doubt you will find a new one and if you do, the mark-up will likely blow your mind. Honda (Odyssey) and Kia (Carnival) both produce highly regarded minivans.  Good luck finding those either.  Chrysler makes a minivan that I have actually driven as a rental.  It was fine enough to drive and it is probably available, but as I mentioned, no Stellantis products for me.


In the used car market prices have shot up again, for reasons I don't understand.  There were record high prices during the pandemic, then when things started to open up, prices plunged, but suddenly they have shot back up -- wholesale prices at least, which suggests retail prices will follow in a few weeks.  It's hard to figure out the dynamics of this.  I suppose there was some reaction to the end of the pandemic, then when people realized it was still going to be a while until they could walk back into a dealer and buy off the lot, they rushed back to used cars.  Maybe? Who knows?


The key for me is to figure out what that means for my car purchase future.  What it means is that I will be paying top dollar, maybe even close to new prices for a one or two year old Toyota Sienna.  That makes me bristle.  My hope is that the fact that auto loan rates have shot up might slow demand and the record level of repossessions might increase supply such that in a few months prices come back down.  Or even better, supply chains finally recover and I can walk into the local Toyota dealer and see what's in stock.


Bottom line, my ear is still to the ground, but the ground is telling me to wait.


Friday, January 06, 2023

The Month That Was - December 2022

"What have we learned, Palmer?" That quote is far too obscure to expect anyone to know it.  It's from an underappreciated Coen Bros. film, Burn After Reading.  After a movie's worth of dysfunctional and absurd madness ends, J. K. Simmons asks that of his underling. He answers his own question with, "I guess we learned not to do it again.  I'm f*cked if I know what we did."

Last year at this time I was just getting over a horrendous bout with Covid, I had hung on to my job by the skin of my teeth, and was diagnosed with arthritis.  This year I'm doing better.  I have found some security, and even advancement, at work, albeit with a good deal more day to day stress. So with the absurd madness of Covid and career upheaval in the past, I can only think to ask myself, "What have we learned, Palmer?"  Sadly my answer is the same as J.K. Simmons'. 


As always I continue to fall back on the same two New Year's Resolutions:

  1. Enhance and enrich the lives of people I care about.

  2. Fight sloth (the Deadly Sin, not the adorable forest creature).


I've done well on (1).  I bought a house in Savannah to facilitate my dejure step-daughter's education. Also, I was able to see my assistance to a beloved friend pay off in her getting her Master's Degree and relocating to Arizona with a comfy job.  (2) remains a never-ending battle.


[Rant, Travel] Hertz Hurts

[TV] Toob Notes

[Roaring 20s] Roaring 20s 2.0 Follow Up


[Rant, Travel] Hertz Hurts

Long time readers know that I have a hate/hate relationship with car rental agencies.  The glaring exception to this is National Car Rental and if I have one piece of advice every traveler should follow it is: Join National's Emerald Club and never rent a car from anyone but National unless it's a dire emergency.  If National has no cars available, consider flying into another airport when cars are available or rescheduling your trip until they do. (That last sentence is only partially tongue in cheek.)

The corporate culture at every other car rental company is aggressively adversarial.  Whether it's misleading you into buying add-ons or scaring you into insurance you don't need or charging you for damage you didn't cause -- they are looking for ways to squeeze you and slap you.  They do this not because it is especially profitable, but because their culture teaches them that their customers are either easy marks or dishonest cheats.  Despite my jaded view, I have to admit, the recent actions from Hertz surprised even me in its outright contemptuousness. 


Hertz's (reasonable) policy is that cars that are not returned in the time frame expected get reported to the police as stolen.  Now I am sure even Hertz doesn't report a car stolen as soon as it's late.  There is probably a grace period, during which they expect you to contact them and/or they try to contact you, but after that, yeah, the car is effectively stolen.


Well it seems our friends at Hertz had what they are calling a "computer glitch" that ended up having them report legitimately rented cars as stolen.  Imagine tooling around in your rented Hertz -- having been scammed into an upgrade and liability insurance despite already being covered by your American Express -- when you get pulled over, arrested, and even jailed for auto theft. It was not just one or two cases.  There were three hundred and sixty-four claims against Hertz for this in a class action lawsuit.


Now, I work in technology so I know the kind of bad situations "computer glitches" can get you in.  And I am not someone inclined to decry big corporations needlessly.  They are, in fact, easy targets.  They are risk averse, vulnerable to PR assaults, and easy to demonize because there is never a human face to them.  Still, I can't help but wonder how this "computer glitch" was left in the wild for so long without somebody saying, "Maybe we should do a manual review before we report cars stolen and have our customers thrown in jail until we get the glitch fixed."


The lawsuit itself calls that out (not manually reviewing stolen car reporting) as an act of corporate malfeasance.  And it goes one better, claiming that in some instances, when confronted with a false report, Hertz actually backdated the documentation to make it look like the customer was at fault.  Here is a good summary.  If that is true, it's outright fraud.


Perhaps we will never know the truth since Hertz has settled the cases (or at least "most" of the cases) for $168M.  My advanced math skills tell me that is well in excess of $450k per claim, which suggests they really, really didn't want this to go further.


On the one hand Hertz has been a mess.  They filed Chapter 11 during the pandemic and have settled other class actions brought against them including not paying overtime, false claims of damages, excessive toll fees, and more.  You'd think they were a hair's breadth from folding.  Then it turns out, they just arranged to buy a 100K Tesla fleet for $4.2B.  Da hell?


By the end of April 2020, Hertz was missing lease payments on its fleet. On May 18, Kathryn Marinello stepped down as CEO. Four days later, on May 22, the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, listing $18 billion in debt. Shortly after that, famed activist investor Carl Icahn sold his entire 39% stake in Hertz for a mere 72 cents per share, taking a $2 billion loss.


Then, a funny thing happened. Retail investors started flocking to Hertz stock. Some were driven by a belief that the Hertz brand could eventually sell for enough to return some value to equity holders. Some were driven by pure speculation. Whatever the reason, the result was that Hertz shares soared 1,000% in the span of two weeks, climbing from as low as 59 cents per share up to $5.50.


Covid taketh away and then Covid giveth right back.  Bankruptcy law is a strange thing.  You would think going bankrupt would mean destruction, but it often means the opposite.  You get a clean slate financially and your lenders have to eat it.  The adage "If you owe someone $100 and can't pay you are in trouble, but if you owe someone millions and can't pay, they are in trouble" is very, very true.


Those financial machinations may bring profit.  It's possible they will attract a whole demographic of retail renters with the offer of Teslas instead of Chevy Malibus. But if there is any justice, it will be short lived unless they change their behavior toward their customers.  "I got falsely arrested for auto theft and thrown in jail, but at least I was driving a Tesla," said no one ever.


In contrast, think of the disaster Southwest Airlines just went through.  They, like Hertz, have a lot of fundamental problems but they are generally well-liked by their customers.  Speculation currently is that Southwest will weather the reputational storm.  People are forgiving if they don't think you're malicious.


The moral of the story:  join National Car Rental's Emerald Club.


[TV] Toob Notes

I made the switch from Roku + Sling to Chromecast + YouTube TV.  Why? Well, the Roku was behaving strangely. Sound and video would get out of sync and the unit would need to be re-started.  Experience tells me that when electronics start to do things like that, they do not get better.  I gave up Sling for YouTube TV because YouTube TV has a better channel selection and while it is a bit more expensive, it is not so much more expensive now that Sling has increased their prices.  An economist would say I was on the margin and the $5/month increase pushed me across the margin.

The other reason I did this is that while doing perfunctory research I came to the conclusion that both Chromecast and YouTube TV are best-in-class right now.


The downside to all this is that Google (Google, er…Alphabet owns Chromecast and YouTube TV) now has an even larger claim on my life than before (he typed into Google Docs to post on Google's Blogger).  Ah well, one thing I need to internalize is that these streaming services can come and go as fast as you want them to.  Canceling one and adding another is maybe a 10 minute operation at most.  If I get fearful or frustrated with Google I can snag an Amazon Fire TV device and switch to Hulu + live in a trice.  Maybe persistent and randomly spaced rotations through the services are the best way to keep our tech overlords confused.


Against all odds, I have actually found interesting things to watch.  I won't call them good, just interesting or entertaining.  


  • Tulsa King -- I'm a big fan of Stallone, but whatever he did to get himself in shape for Rocky Balboa he has clearly abandoned (7 years makes all the difference), also, he's 76 years old so...  Mob legend gets out of prison and his "family" relocates him from Brooklyn to Tulsa OK where he will be free to do as he pleases.  Standard mob guy stuff, but leveled up by really fine acting and writing that doesn't overplay the fish out of water angle.  Highly entertaining.  
  • Derry Girls -- we follow a group of potty mouthed high school girls in Northern Ireland during the Time of Troubles.  Myguess is that it was supposed to be a view on the clash of kids living a standard high school life in the midst of violence.  The message here is that the violence really did not have a big impact on them because it's just a high school comedy with the occasional hint of military in the background. Irish people are inherently funny so it's good for a laugh.  It gets more hacky and tone deaf as they run out of ideas, but it has a good run at the outset.  Worth a look.
  • Letterkenny -- Season 13 now is it?  A short, 6 episode slate of the classic of stupid Canadian humor. I suspect it suffers from creator Jared Keeso's attention to his new series -- the excellent Shoresy - but it still has its moment or two, and it's still very Canadian.  One scene is about 5 minutes of nothing but plays-on-words of hockey player names.  Probably not worth it unless you're already a Letterkenny fan, and even then, it's mostly a hash of tropes from previous seasons. 

[Roaring 20s] Roaring 20s 2.0 Follow Up

Addendums to previously discussed topics.

  • Scott Alexander on crypto -- He finds some reasons to not abandon crypto in the face of the current meltdown.  He is right that it's a good thing to have the technology available and functional even if it doesn't change the world.  Crypto needs to 1) rebuild trust (learning the lessons of a thousand years of finance all over again), 2) Find a use case that isn't of dubious morality.
  • Politics of ChatGPT -- ChatGPT is still all the rage.  This post explores where it stands on politics.  It seems it is over to the left.
  • Fake blade runner dialog -- Using the previously discussed Stable Diffusion in conjunction with ChatGPT, this is a machine generated homage to Rutger Hauer's famous Blade Runner soliloquy. Pretty believable.
  • Winners and losers of latest AI -- Tyler Cowen wonders who will benefit and lose from the new level of AI.

Thursday, December 08, 2022

The Month That Was - November 2022

Thanks were given.  Whatever griping and sniveling I may do from time to time, I really do understand and appreciate how lucky I am as you can see from my missive below. 

I find I'm busying myself with house stuff.  For the past five or so years I have had a houseguest with a cat.  Now that they're gone, I feel like it's time to get back to some upgrades.  I am also slowly working through a purge of Stuff in anticipation of eventually selling the place.  I realize those two things are at odds.  You should never upgrade in advance of selling because you never make your money back.  We'll see how that develops.


I feel a bit weird not having a writing project active for the first time in a quarter-century. For now I still plan to hold off on the next project until retirement.  Bit by bit, I'm making progress towards that time and the start of the next chapter.


[Travel, Rant] Gratitude Checklist

[Rant] More of the Same

[Roaring 20s] Roaring 20s 2.0: ChatGPT is My Co-pilot


[Travel, Rant] Gratitude Checklist

I drove down to Savannah.  I stayed a couple of weeks (which is why I drove). I will now try to catalog the things I am thankful for from that trip.

  • Google Maps/Waze -- miraculous things, really.  Not only do I not need maps, I don't even need to know the directions, they just tell you what to do and when to do it, even routing you around construction and accidents when it is optimal. Young'uns are saying "Yeah, so?" But to anyone old enough to remember cross country trips from the days of yore it's a miracle.  If you had told 10 year old me in the back of the family car, with everyone yelling at everyone else over every wrong turn or missed exit, that in the future you could just give a little machine the address you wanted to get to and it would guide you their effortlessly, I would have said you're reading too much sci-fi.  A lot of modern tech is pointless crap, but mapping apps are a world changer.

  • My car works flawlessly -- this was not previously the case.  Prior to the ascendance of Toyota and Honda, all cars were, by current standards, unreliable.  A multi-day road involved a constant low-level dread that your car would simply fail and leave you stranded.  You just prayed that when it happened you were in reach of help, otherwise you were left at the mercy of the road.  Hopefully other drivers might offer a ride to the next exit, or at least not serial kill you.  My car has 140,000 miles on it and it is superior to literally every new car made before 1980, and most before 2000.  Perspective breeds gratitude.

  • I'm rich -- OK, I'm not rich.  But by any measure of the expectations of my youth or when compared to 99% of the global population, I am rich.  I have a house in Savannah that I purchased entirely for the sake of convenience of people I love.  Even if I'm not actually rich, I am rich, if you get my meaning.

  • Home office technology -- ridiculously, I have a home office in both my homes, each with multiple monitors, and the tech miracles of the day allow me to be in constant face to face contact with people all over the world.  I can work from anywhere, which may sound like hell to a lot of people, but for me it means I only need to use vacation time when I am actually taking vacation.  If I go to Savannah and my loved ones are working I don't have to take time off except when they are free to enjoy it with me.  Not to belabor the point, but thoughtlessly video-conferencing is another sci-fi dream from my youth.

  • At least I have my health -- Yeah, it takes a lot of work, and it'll never be what it once was, but the old bones are hanging in there, arthritis notwithstanding. Ands miracle drugs…well, that's a topic for later--

  • Loving and Being Loved -- Somebody once said happiness is not the purpose of life.  The purpose of life is to love and be loved and accept the consequences.  Fair.  I think I'm doing OK at both.  But happiness, or at least gratitude, is a nice bonus.  The family that has welcomed me into it are among the most thoughtful and well-adjusted people I have ever known.


I hope your Thanksgiving was as good as mine.


[Rant] More of the Same

Let's start with this article that examines the logos of tech companies and luxury brands and points out that they are evolving to a certain dull minimalist text form. Then there's this article that points out how cars have evolved to a central ur-design in the same manner.  David Perell, a writer I follow, takes the analysis a step further in twitter and summarized here.  You can see this in cities too; whether it's Ann Arbor or Savannah or presumably pretty much anywhere in the world:  there is a core historic area -- the campus and downtown in Ann Arbor, the historic district in Savannah -- but any area developed after, say, 1980, with be strip malls with franchised stores, office parks, or planned housing developments.  From what I read, that is the case all over the developed world.

Most people decry this. Many come to the conclusion that it's a natural result from various homogenizing trends.  For instance, everyone wants their logo easily readable on a phone screen now, so that leads to variations on simple, sans serif text.  For autos, safety regulations have placed a high cost on creative shapes and contours.  In cities, the same forces that influence Ann Arbor or Savannah also influence Turin or Kobe so it makes sense they would converge.


As far as fashion and hairstyles and pop culture and even manners and decor, well it's all shared now right?  There is no opportunity for a pocket of non-conformity to evolve to stand in conflict with the majority because the minute it starts, it's everywhere all at once.  Subcultures are exposed instantaneously, evaluated and judged in the crucible of social media, and either move mainstream or die before they become major enough to offer an optional vision.


Food and music are doing a bit better.  There are still major devotees to pure genre in those categories, although both have legitimized fusion in just about every form.  China Poblano in Vegas is an example.  The Grateful Crow, just down the road from me, specializes in Sushi and Burgers (but not sushi-burgers).  Or check out Ted Gioia's list of best albums of 2020. The one line description of almost all of them indicates some sort of style fusion.


A cynic would say that this is all happening because it benefits our corporate overlords (it probably does).  A universalist might suggest that it's because, on average, people are the same all over and value the same things (likely true also, see The Median Voter Theorem).  An old fogey would say these kids have no imagination; they're too conformist.  As a certified Old Fogey I have a certain sympathy for this, but it's not really as cranky an opinion as it sounds.  I have highlighted before how the decade by decade changes in culture pretty much stopped in the 90s.  It's been said (correctly) that apart from the absence of cell phones, you could walk around in the 90s and not realize you'd slipped back 30 years.  Combine that with the trend towards valuing your group identity as the primary source of self-definition, and you end up with a formula for conformity -- where creativity is costly and even risky.


I don't like it, but then, the world is not here for me to like.  My guess is that the monoculture is here to stay and creativity, especially aesthetic creativity, will be the exception rather than the rule for many years to come.


Addendum: a lovely related rant on ugliness.

[Roaring 20s] Roaring 20s 2.0: ChatGPT is My Co-pilot

In contrast to aesthetics, the functional world will likely be regularly turned upside down.  Happenings:

Item 1 - The world of crypto seems to be falling apart.  Crypto coins and tokens and what-have-you are dropping like flies and losing people billions of dollars in the process.  You may have heard about Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) and his FTX crypto exchange and related Alameda hedge fund and all the financial shenanigans that went on around them.  If not, to put it succinctly, SBF set up a crypto token and an exchange for trading it and convinced people that it was safe and backed up by actual assets of value except it kind of wasn't and as soon as people started to suspect that it everything went boom.  Now he's trying to convince everyone that it was all an accident and an oversight and he never intended to defraud anyone.  The story has been given a boost by lurid tales of polyamorous relationships among the principal players. 


The best in-depth and ongoing analysis is coming from Twitter user Autism Capital if you have the time and stomach to wade through it.  There are a bunch of great summaries in Matt Levine's Money Stuff newsletter.  There is little of value at traditional news sites -- maybe this interview with SBF at Vox.


You needn't concern yourself with the details.  The point is suspicion and cynicism is rising in the crypto community and this especially high profile crash is dragging a lot of folks down with it, the bulk of them deservedly.  This is a huge come-to-Jesus moment for crypto.  The above mentioned Levine believes that cryptos are painfully relearning lessons that traditional finance learned and codified long ago.  This aligns with my view.  My guess is that whatever is left standing after the shakeout might be stuff of enduring value.  But the truly wacko stuff peaked a while back and will likely turn to dust -- poor Justin Beiber's $1.3M bored ape NFT was recently valued at $70K.


The alternate view is that crypto and blockchain technologies are, and always have been, a solution in search of a problem, and the whole thing is just the madness of crowds; a modern-day tulip mania. 


A third view is that crypto has real value, but only to secretive, nefarious activities.


I still don't own any.  I once tried to set up an account on the biggest, most reliable crypto exchange and I was stymied by their buggy software.  I'm grateful for that now, but once the shakeout is over I will likely try again.


Item 2 - How about ChatGPT, have you heard of that?  ChatGPT is a chatbot.  You know what a chatbot is, right?  ChatGPT however, is not your run-of-the-mill brain-dead customer support bot.  It is backed by a super-sophisticated artificial intelligence.  You can ask it remarkably complex questions and it will respond with coherent and relevant answers -- mostly.  Here is a twitter thread with some of the most interesting results and commentary.  People have speculated this as the thing that puts Google out of business.  That's highly unlikely, Google is well aware that this sort of thing is coming.  That said, asking a question of ChatGPT will very often give you better results than a Google search.  It does best in areas where it has been trained on a large body of work, or where there is a clear objective answer.  


For example, let's say I needed to file paperwork for a building permit in Washtenaw County.  A question to ChatGPT would probably give me a fairly comprehensive answer with the names and contact information for agencies, the names of the forms, the expected time involved, and even share common experiences of others.  Google would give me links to uncountable sites where if I was diligent enough I could get that information.  Also lots of ads.  Similarly, if I was to ask ChatGPT "I am a 62 year old man who is 5'10 and 180 lbs., give me a diet that will help me lose 10 pounds in three months." It would do exactly that, based on its reading of nutritional and fitness information.  One software developer has made the statement that he intends to pair-program with ChatGPT from now on.  This has implications for many careers and industries.  Can I ask it for weekly workouts and dump my personal trainer?  Can I ask it how to sue somebody and skip the lawyer?


ChatGPT does less well on more nebulous topics, occasionally outright failing.  Still, it's a huge step forward, with the potential to disrupt a lot of stuff.


ChatGPT is available to anyone…in theory.  You can set up an account at the above website, if you time it right.  Every time I've visited I've been told it's too busy, please try again later.  You can experience the future, but you'll need to wait in line. 


Item 3 - related to both the above, Tyler Cowen laments that Twitter is now the best place for news.  He's not wrong.  Twitter is great, but you have to carefully manage it.


Item 4 - More artificial intelligence in images.  Stable Diffusion is an AI product that will accept a written prompt from you and create an image.  Here are some samples. Truly remarkable and fascinating, if not quite so disruptive.