Tuesday, February 07, 2023

[Cars] Not Quite Yet

I continue to be in the market for a new car, but only softly.  I'm coming up on my standard ownership duration -- 9 years, 150k miles -- on the Acura, so I've put my ear to the ground in the auto market.

A lot of things haven't panned out as expected.  EVs really aren't there for me due to range concerns.  Many get in the 300-350 mile range, but where does that leave me on one of my semi-frequent sojourns to Savannah: crossing my fingers that I find a way to recharge along the way along with occupying myself during the interminable time it takes to do so.  I am very keen on the idea of a hybrid, though.


Another thing I had high hopes for were auto subscription services wherein you make arrangements for the use of a car at any given time -- all maintenance and insurance covered, you just pay for gas.  You can turn it in for a new model at will.  The folks who attempted this were on the luxury side and therefore stratospheric in price, but I had hoped someone would find a way to do this at scale and bring the price down into my range.  Nope. For now it seems unworkable.


So that leaves the operations in the auto market in roughly the same shape it was when I last bought a car.  Of course, there has been upheaval in supply chains and interest rates that have made a hash of things.  Many brands are suffering supply shortages of new vehicles, including Acrua and Lexus/Toyota and the Korean brands.  About the only new cars that are in healthy supply are Jeeps and Buicks.  I have known far too many people who have had nightmarish experiences with Jeeps/Chrysler/Stellantis/Etc. to involve myself with any of those cars.


I have a soft spot for Buicks.  My erstwhile houseguest had two Encores, both were stellar.  Were I to go the Buick route I would want the larger Enclave, but I don't really want to.  As I may have mentioned before, I kind of want a minivan.  Specifically the Toyota Sienna that comes with a hybrid engine.  See, to me, an SUV is just an impractical minivan.  It is better designed to haul stuff and people than an SUV, it just lacks the SUVs "rugged character", which is kind of laughable when you think about it. The minivan can even come with 4WD. A true SUV would work better if you needed to go off road now and then, although let's face it, beyond the added ground clearance, most SUVs aren't intended for anything worse than a gravel driveway.  If you need to tow or haul real loads of stuff, you want a pickup. Modern full-size pickups, for their part, can do just about anything, from carry you and your passengers in Rolls Royce comfort to tow an enormous Airstream.  But full-size pickups are too much car for me.  They are thirsty and awkward to park because of their bulk.  Still, by any measure, an F-150 crew cab with a hybrid twin-turbo V6 and 400 HP is an astonishing feat of engineering.


As for minivans, my choice would be a Toyota Sienna for the hybrid engine. I doubt you will find a new one and if you do, the mark-up will likely blow your mind. Honda (Odyssey) and Kia (Carnival) both produce highly regarded minivans.  Good luck finding those either.  Chrysler makes a minivan that I have actually driven as a rental.  It was fine enough to drive and it is probably available, but as I mentioned, no Stellantis products for me.


In the used car market prices have shot up again, for reasons I don't understand.  There were record high prices during the pandemic, then when things started to open up, prices plunged, but suddenly they have shot back up -- wholesale prices at least, which suggests retail prices will follow in a few weeks.  It's hard to figure out the dynamics of this.  I suppose there was some reaction to the end of the pandemic, then when people realized it was still going to be a while until they could walk back into a dealer and buy off the lot, they rushed back to used cars.  Maybe? Who knows?


The key for me is to figure out what that means for my car purchase future.  What it means is that I will be paying top dollar, maybe even close to new prices for a one or two year old Toyota Sienna.  That makes me bristle.  My hope is that the fact that auto loan rates have shot up might slow demand and the record level of repossessions might increase supply such that in a few months prices come back down.  Or even better, supply chains finally recover and I can walk into the local Toyota dealer and see what's in stock.


Bottom line, my ear is still to the ground, but the ground is telling me to wait.