Thursday, June 10, 2021

[Covid19] Coronatime, Month 15

Dear Lord, could we really be near the finish line?  As I write this I have spent two days mask free.  That includes going out to lunch, going to the gym, and grocery shopping.  And yes, it felt weird, but I'll get used to it really fast. I even did a live in-person five mile race.  The expectation in Michigan is now to remove all restrictions by July.  Sweet Fancy Moses!

My only fear now is that we get another spike and everybody freaks and we start backsliding.  I find that unlikely, not because we won't get another spike -- if anything this virus has dashed the best of expectations and rational analysis, see my previous comments on heterogeneity -- but simply because it will be politically and socially untenable to suddenly tell everyone "Sorry we have to go through it all again."


Here I am counting my chickens while juggling eggs. 


Covid-19 will be with us for a long time, probably like the flu is still with us.  It will mutate, wax and wane, and stagger on.  We will probably develop an annual vaccine regime like we have for flu, with a board of epidemiologists selecting what concoction of antivirals everyone gets this year.  People will continue to die from it, like people continue to die from flu, but we will have acclimated and these deaths won't be panic-worthy, or even news-worthy.


What will follow now is judgements in hindsight as data and information is processed outside of political positioning and apocalyptic screeching. It's already looking like opinion is shifting to the virus coming from a lab in Wuhan.  There is a lot of momentum behind the idea that the financial relief was Too Much, what with low end jobs going unfilled.  I wouldn't be surprised if sentiment turned against masks. Who knows what else we will recriminate ourselves for.  


Whatever the case, I just hope we can enjoy the summer without restrictions, riots, or any other evils.