The Month That Was - April 2021

April was transitional.  Taxes were filed and 2020 put to rest.  The weather is whipsawing all over the place.  I painted my bedroom. (Note to self, despite advertising, a coat of primer does not let you get away with a single coat of paint.  Nor does any paint that promises to cover in a single coat do so.)

I am in the middle of one last revision on my current manuscript, after which I need to start getting it formatted for Kindle, finding cover art, and doing all those things I've forgotten how to do because I only do this once every five years or so.  When publication is imminent I'll bring you all up to speed.

[Covid19] Coronatime, Month 14

[Roaring 20s] Roaring 20s (2.0) Watch

[TV] Falcon and The Winter Soldier

[Covid19] Coronatime, Month 14

The virus, though broadly diminished, remains remarkably heterogeneous in its effect.  Michigan is just now getting over a spike that was unmatched by any other State, for no known reason that anyone can verify.  On a grander scale, India, which was spared any huge devastation over the past year, is suddenly spiralling out of control. What is the model that accounts for this?  India was heralded for a very long time as having stronger immunity for some reason -- weather, previous disease history, blah-blah… -- so much for those explanations.  So what is it? There is still something -- perhaps many things -- that we are missing in our understanding of COVID-19.  Until we sort that out, every day another Michigan or India could emerge.  

India aside, there is a definite shift in expectation to one of winding down on restrictions.  Even here in Michigan we did not revert to greater restrictions when the spike hit. The official reason for that is the improvements in treatment and, therefore, reduced mortality. I suspect the actual reason is the acknowledgment that the restrictions are not the great savior that they're made out to be and giving back the small bits of easing we had gained would not help the infection rate and would also make for a bunch of angry voters.  Most places are ramping down on restrictions and even starting to drop mask mandates.  

It will be interesting to see how long the fear lingers.  There will be a small core of people who will continue to wear masks long after restrictions -- possibly for the rest of their lives in some circumstances.  It would not surprise me if going forward, any concert or sporting event you attend, or any large crowd you find yourself in, will contain 2%-3% of people casually wearing a mask.

The effect on the service industries is going to be even more interesting.  The travel and hospitality industries have been devastated and service levels necessarily have dropped horribly.  With the stimulus payments, low-compensation employees -- i.e. service industry grunts -- have been able to sit out returning to work.  The best of them have probably been learning new skills, the worst have been protesting and trashing cities.  Whatever the case, the low end employers can't find labor.  Scott Sumner expands on this topic.  I personally have experienced the problems in the rental car industry, where they had to sell off a big percentage of their fleet to stay afloat -- thus forcing me into a less than pleasant experience renting for my last visit to Florida.

As for me, I intend to continue to live as fear-free as possible, with appreciation for my good fortune.  And I continue to believe the next decade will be astonishing in ways we now don't comprehend.  In fact I am inauguration a new feature post "Roaring '20s (2.0) Watch" for just that reason.  See below.

Footnote: Nicholas Wade makes a strong case for the virus originating in a lab escape in Wuhan.  That is not a social-media-nut-job-conspiracy, it's a legit solid argument from a very reliable science writer.

[Roaring 20s] Roaring 20s (2.0) Watch

Let's get started.  In this heading and tag I'll try to document some of the more fantastic changes that are in store, or have already occurred, in the new Roaring '20s.

At the moment, the face of R20 2.0 is Elon Musk.  There is an audience who would find that annoying, but it's really undeniable.  Setting aside that he founded a successful (so far) U.S. automaker -- something that hasn't been done since...well, my lifetime, that's pretty remarkable.  Then there is SpaceX, which I figured was something special when I saw the video of that rocket land perfectly vertical some years back. What has he done for us lately, you ask?  

His delightfully named Boring Company just completed a functional first section of tunnel in Las Vegas.  It's just a short loop around the Las Vegas Convention Center but it's a tremendous achievement as a proof of concept.  Tunnels are wonderful things as they keep traffic from interference with pedestrians, and when they are operated as mass transit with autonomous electric vehicles providing the motion, it's a real step towards George Jetson. As someone who has noted in the past that Vegas infrastructure is thoroughly overwhelmed, this could be huge.  IF done on a grander scale, airlines might have a viable competitor (although I may not live to see it).

Even more amazing is telekinesis.  Okay, not really, but sort of.  It's called "decoded neural activity."  That is to say your brainwaves (so to speak) can be read and interpreted, then acted on by machine to do the actual activity.  Check out this astonishing video.  Effectively the monkey moves the cursor by thinking of it -- and with good accuracy.  This is real science fiction level stuff.  Imagine the benefit for the disabled.  Imagine your dog can get his own food by thinking about being hungry.  And everything in between.  What was the quote about advanced technology being indistinguishable from magic?  Neuralink, the company behind that video, is, naturally, Musk's.

I know many have their beefs with Elon and they may be valid, but how can you not be impressed.  Go Elon.

For something a little more conceptual, here's Ted Gioia on how booms traditionally follow from pandemics.  The money quote:

This is the familiar dynamic of disease and recovery that we have all witnessed firsthand with individuals. How often have you seen friends who adopt a full range of wholesome and healthy lifestyle habits while ailing, only to return to the most excessive behavior after recovery? Is it any surprise, that entire communities and societies follow the same pattern?

We are now emerging into our own post-pandemic culture, and it’s perhaps too early to see all its outlines clearly. But every sign indicates a faster revival of partying, nightlife and entertainment than the pundits predicted. And that might be just the opening stage in a larger cultural blossoming. Be prepared for something more than a mere economic boost measurable by dollars or employment or other quantitative metrics. 

I'm hoping I get to write a lot more on R20 2.0.

[TV] Falcon and The Winter Soldier

Strike two for Marvel TV. FATWS was no better than Wandavision.  It was slightly more coherent and less contrived, but it was overfull on ripped-from-the-headlines racial hectoring (isn't everything?) and the politics of it were utterly infantile.  Poor Anthony Mackie was given a speech even Chris Evans couldn't have made inspirational.  Honestly, the dialogue on this show was insipid.  Wyatt Russell (I miss Lodge 49) and Sebastian Stan did the best they could with their lame material.  Julia Louis-Dreyfus had a great cameo and some good lines.  Maybe she got notes from Larry David and pretended to improv them.

The major problems it suffers from are the same ones Wandavision suffered from. 

1. It's distracted by the need to set up future movies, this causes events to be forced and feel unnatural.  

2. It's not a TV show, it's a very long movie sliced into six pieces -- the cadences are all off.  The final episode was jarringly structured, it seemed to be missing an act somewhere.

3. Most importantly, the main characters are still not leads and the actors portraying them are not the charismatic ones with perfect comic timing that we have come to expect from Marvel.  The standout performance was from Daniel Bruhl as Zemo. 

The upcoming Loki has Tom Hiddleston and Owen Wilson, so #3 should not be a problem.  We'll see if they sort out the rest.

Aside:  I've been spot binging a couple of old shows: Made Men and Sopranos. It's amazing how fast and far TV has fallen.  We used to have Sopranos, The Wire, and Deadwood, all going at the same time.  Now we can't even have a third season of Lodge 49, we're waiting forever for the final Better Call Saul, and we're reduced to hoping a Marvel show will at least be reasonably entertaining.  Probably time to go back to reading.