The virus, though broadly diminished, remains remarkably heterogeneous in its effect. Michigan is just now getting over a spike that was unmatched by any other State, for no known reason that anyone can verify. On a grander scale, India, which was spared any huge devastation over the past year, is suddenly spiralling out of control. What is the model that accounts for this? India was heralded for a very long time as having stronger immunity for some reason -- weather, previous disease history, blah-blah… -- so much for those explanations. So what is it? There is still something -- perhaps many things -- that we are missing in our understanding of COVID-19. Until we sort that out, every day another Michigan or India could emerge.
India aside, there is a definite shift in expectation to one of winding down on restrictions. Even here in Michigan we did not revert to greater restrictions when the spike hit. The official reason for that is the improvements in treatment and, therefore, reduced mortality. I suspect the actual reason is the acknowledgment that the restrictions are not the great savior that they're made out to be and giving back the small bits of easing we had gained would not help the infection rate and would also make for a bunch of angry voters. Most places are ramping down on restrictions and even starting to drop mask mandates.
It will be interesting to see how long the fear lingers. There will be a small core of people who will continue to wear masks long after restrictions -- possibly for the rest of their lives in some circumstances. It would not surprise me if going forward, any concert or sporting event you attend, or any large crowd you find yourself in, will contain 2%-3% of people casually wearing a mask.
The effect on the service industries is going to be even more interesting. The travel and hospitality industries have been devastated and service levels necessarily have dropped horribly. With the stimulus payments, low-compensation employees -- i.e. service industry grunts -- have been able to sit out returning to work. The best of them have probably been learning new skills, the worst have been protesting and trashing cities. Whatever the case, the low end employers can't find labor. Scott Sumner expands on this topic. I personally have experienced the problems in the rental car industry, where they had to sell off a big percentage of their fleet to stay afloat -- thus forcing me into a less than pleasant experience renting for my last visit to Florida.
As for me, I intend to continue to live as fear-free as possible, with appreciation for my good fortune. And I continue to believe the next decade will be astonishing in ways we now don't comprehend. In fact I am inauguration a new feature post "Roaring '20s (2.0) Watch" for just that reason. See below.
Footnote: Nicholas Wade makes a strong case for the virus originating in a lab escape in Wuhan. That is not a social-media-nut-job-conspiracy, it's a legit solid argument from a very reliable science writer.
