Well the initial shock is over. I've figured out how to work from home. Food is not a problem. I'm one of those guys who buys toilet paper and paper towels in bulk so I was fully stocked before it started. I can't find sanitizing wipes so those are being used measuredly. The biggest hurt is seeing my retirement savings go from enjoy-the-good-life to think-about-downsizing.
I still have my job and I should be one of the last to go if layoffs start. A while ago my company started contracting for developers rather than hiring full-time employees. You would hope the contractors go first if things get bad. That's kind of the point. I resisted the move to contractors originally, but now I am chastised.
I am absolutely one of the lucky ones. My biggest problem for now is not being able to go to the gym.
I'm left to question what the future holds. Short term we have at least a month more on lockdown. Detroit is in a bad way and so anywhere nearby will probably suffer along with it as far as ongoing restrictions. Honestly, if Michigan lags anywhere in the country in returning to normal, I plan to hop a plane to Normalsville ASAP. All I need is a wifi connection.
It's the uncertainty and lack of control that induces anxiety, and uncertainty and lack of control is pretty much all we have now. The only thing that would help at this point would be knowing the endgame, which nobody knows. So I might as well spill my expectations since they are as good as anyone's.
I think before it's all said and done, about half the population can count on getting infected, but I want to be careful with statistics. Right now folks are putting the death rate at a little over 2% of the infected. So if half the population gets it that means 1% of the population will die, right (3.5 million in the U.S.)? Well, no. Right now that 2+% is based on the the number of people who were sick enough, and lucky enough, to be tested. We have no idea how many people have been infected as it is generally accepted that for most people this could be passed off as a mild cold, and that many are asymptomatic entirely. So, no, I don't think 1% of the population will die from this. The Oxford Centre for Evidence-based Medicine now estimates somewhere between .1% and .26%. That's optimistic, I think (but so am I). It's still a huge number, though. If I am right about half the population getting infected, that still calcs out to about 400,000 fatalities in the U.S. Roughly the same as WW2, or about 12 years of annual traffic deaths.
Another gut punch is that we may not be able to do anything about it beyond some minor mitigation. Once someone is sick enough to need urgent hospitalization (read: a ventilator), I have seen 10-30% chances of survival statistics, even if they get the care and equipment they need. Most of us don't need to panic for our own sake. The bulk of the fatalities will be for the elderly and health compromised. Even so, the bulk of us should brace for potential loss of family or friends. Barring the discovery of an effective treatment or a vaccine, all the social distancing in the world will just smooth the pain. Uncertainty and lack of control.
No one has ever successfully created a vaccine for a coronavirus (the flu is not a coronavirus). That sounds bad, but it's not 1918, or even 2002 anymore. This virus has had its genetic structure turned inside out in every way imaginable. Bill Gates and others have thrown billions at the problem. If it is possible to find a vaccine quickly, someone will, but I don't think the odds are with it. That's not to say some treatment won't be found to mitigate the symptoms and enable more recoveries. We have other new weapons in our arsenal such as 3-D printing respirator parts, near instant and constant communication, fewer lifelong smokers, and better hygiene policies in general. And we still have a potential arrow in our quiver called variolation. Variolation is when you infect likely survivors (volunteers, of course) with a very mild dose of the virus; just enough to develop immunity without inordinate risk of fatality. This was used effectively against smallpox as long ago as the 1700s. You build up enough immunity across the population to effectively drop the wildfire like spread of the virus if not stop it outright. Socio-politically we aren't there although I wonder if we should be.
Anyway, I expect to get it. I don't expect to die. And I really hope taking good care of myself physically over all these years has paid off in a comparatively strong immune system for a 59-year-old. (59 and a half, but who's counting?) That is the story I'm sticking to, anyway.
But what is the process for getting the world back to normal? Well, the federal government has offered guidelines which, as I read them, roughly come down to "If you go two weeks without an increase in the death rate, then you can think about gradually easing restrictions." Sounds reasonable and fairly neutral -- it doesn't make any reference to plans and schemes, it just looks to see if whatever you are doing is working. It does leave open the question of neighboring geography. If Detroit remains a hotspot but the rest of Michigan is under control, how long should Mackinac Island remain closed? Or if Indiana eases restrictions will there be mass visitation from the Chicago or Cinicinnati or Louisville that knocks them back down? These are going to be tricky decisions that have to be made with talking heads on the news shows trying to trap and embarrass the decision makers, typing hands on social media screeching about epic fails everywhere, and dirt-bag lawyers looking for any angle for a class action case.
I suspect we'll get back to normal when people fear the restrictions more than the virus. Right now there is a broad sense of community and urge to sacrifice for the common good. That will slowly dwindle as the unemployment rolls grow and economic recovery slips further and further into the future. A good clue will be what happens when white collar workers (like me) start to get laid off en masse. A lot of righteous tunes will change and suddenly the opinion that these restrictions may not be the panacea they are cracked up to be will start to gain prominence.
So I have no great insights or answers. I can build narratives where everything works out great and also where it doesn't, and I have no idea which is right. One thing I am reading here and there is how, once this is over, people will be a lot more grateful for their everyday lives. Not me. If there is one behavior I have been able to practice in recent decades it is gratitude for what I have. At least, that leaves me with no regrets about not appreciating my life before the plague. I am grateful for my gratitude.
One last thought on looking ahead: Many people are looking to the 1918 flu pandemic as a comparable. I don't know how accurate that is. It's a very different world. But I will point out that what followed that plague was 9 years of one of the greatest booms in history called The Roaring Twenties. That roar went far beyond just the economy. Once we get through this, things could get lit up in here, is what I'm saying.
