The Month That Was - April 2021

April was transitional.  Taxes were filed and 2020 put to rest.  The weather is whipsawing all over the place.  I painted my bedroom. (Note to self, despite advertising, a coat of primer does not let you get away with a single coat of paint.  Nor does any paint that promises to cover in a single coat do so.)

I am in the middle of one last revision on my current manuscript, after which I need to start getting it formatted for Kindle, finding cover art, and doing all those things I've forgotten how to do because I only do this once every five years or so.  When publication is imminent I'll bring you all up to speed.

[Covid19] Coronatime, Month 14

[Roaring 20s] Roaring 20s (2.0) Watch

[TV] Falcon and The Winter Soldier

[Covid19] Coronatime, Month 14

The virus, though broadly diminished, remains remarkably heterogeneous in its effect.  Michigan is just now getting over a spike that was unmatched by any other State, for no known reason that anyone can verify.  On a grander scale, India, which was spared any huge devastation over the past year, is suddenly spiralling out of control. What is the model that accounts for this?  India was heralded for a very long time as having stronger immunity for some reason -- weather, previous disease history, blah-blah… -- so much for those explanations.  So what is it? There is still something -- perhaps many things -- that we are missing in our understanding of COVID-19.  Until we sort that out, every day another Michigan or India could emerge.  

India aside, there is a definite shift in expectation to one of winding down on restrictions.  Even here in Michigan we did not revert to greater restrictions when the spike hit. The official reason for that is the improvements in treatment and, therefore, reduced mortality. I suspect the actual reason is the acknowledgment that the restrictions are not the great savior that they're made out to be and giving back the small bits of easing we had gained would not help the infection rate and would also make for a bunch of angry voters.  Most places are ramping down on restrictions and even starting to drop mask mandates.  

It will be interesting to see how long the fear lingers.  There will be a small core of people who will continue to wear masks long after restrictions -- possibly for the rest of their lives in some circumstances.  It would not surprise me if going forward, any concert or sporting event you attend, or any large crowd you find yourself in, will contain 2%-3% of people casually wearing a mask.

The effect on the service industries is going to be even more interesting.  The travel and hospitality industries have been devastated and service levels necessarily have dropped horribly.  With the stimulus payments, low-compensation employees -- i.e. service industry grunts -- have been able to sit out returning to work.  The best of them have probably been learning new skills, the worst have been protesting and trashing cities.  Whatever the case, the low end employers can't find labor.  Scott Sumner expands on this topic.  I personally have experienced the problems in the rental car industry, where they had to sell off a big percentage of their fleet to stay afloat -- thus forcing me into a less than pleasant experience renting for my last visit to Florida.

As for me, I intend to continue to live as fear-free as possible, with appreciation for my good fortune.  And I continue to believe the next decade will be astonishing in ways we now don't comprehend.  In fact I am inauguration a new feature post "Roaring '20s (2.0) Watch" for just that reason.  See below.

Footnote: Nicholas Wade makes a strong case for the virus originating in a lab escape in Wuhan.  That is not a social-media-nut-job-conspiracy, it's a legit solid argument from a very reliable science writer.

[Roaring 20s] Roaring 20s (2.0) Watch

Let's get started.  In this heading and tag I'll try to document some of the more fantastic changes that are in store, or have already occurred, in the new Roaring '20s.

At the moment, the face of R20 2.0 is Elon Musk.  There is an audience who would find that annoying, but it's really undeniable.  Setting aside that he founded a successful (so far) U.S. automaker -- something that hasn't been done since...well, my lifetime, that's pretty remarkable.  Then there is SpaceX, which I figured was something special when I saw the video of that rocket land perfectly vertical some years back. What has he done for us lately, you ask?  

His delightfully named Boring Company just completed a functional first section of tunnel in Las Vegas.  It's just a short loop around the Las Vegas Convention Center but it's a tremendous achievement as a proof of concept.  Tunnels are wonderful things as they keep traffic from interference with pedestrians, and when they are operated as mass transit with autonomous electric vehicles providing the motion, it's a real step towards George Jetson. As someone who has noted in the past that Vegas infrastructure is thoroughly overwhelmed, this could be huge.  IF done on a grander scale, airlines might have a viable competitor (although I may not live to see it).

Even more amazing is telekinesis.  Okay, not really, but sort of.  It's called "decoded neural activity."  That is to say your brainwaves (so to speak) can be read and interpreted, then acted on by machine to do the actual activity.  Check out this astonishing video.  Effectively the monkey moves the cursor by thinking of it -- and with good accuracy.  This is real science fiction level stuff.  Imagine the benefit for the disabled.  Imagine your dog can get his own food by thinking about being hungry.  And everything in between.  What was the quote about advanced technology being indistinguishable from magic?  Neuralink, the company behind that video, is, naturally, Musk's.

I know many have their beefs with Elon and they may be valid, but how can you not be impressed.  Go Elon.

For something a little more conceptual, here's Ted Gioia on how booms traditionally follow from pandemics.  The money quote:

This is the familiar dynamic of disease and recovery that we have all witnessed firsthand with individuals. How often have you seen friends who adopt a full range of wholesome and healthy lifestyle habits while ailing, only to return to the most excessive behavior after recovery? Is it any surprise, that entire communities and societies follow the same pattern?

We are now emerging into our own post-pandemic culture, and it’s perhaps too early to see all its outlines clearly. But every sign indicates a faster revival of partying, nightlife and entertainment than the pundits predicted. And that might be just the opening stage in a larger cultural blossoming. Be prepared for something more than a mere economic boost measurable by dollars or employment or other quantitative metrics. 

I'm hoping I get to write a lot more on R20 2.0.

[TV] Falcon and The Winter Soldier

Strike two for Marvel TV. FATWS was no better than Wandavision.  It was slightly more coherent and less contrived, but it was overfull on ripped-from-the-headlines racial hectoring (isn't everything?) and the politics of it were utterly infantile.  Poor Anthony Mackie was given a speech even Chris Evans couldn't have made inspirational.  Honestly, the dialogue on this show was insipid.  Wyatt Russell (I miss Lodge 49) and Sebastian Stan did the best they could with their lame material.  Julia Louis-Dreyfus had a great cameo and some good lines.  Maybe she got notes from Larry David and pretended to improv them.

The major problems it suffers from are the same ones Wandavision suffered from. 

1. It's distracted by the need to set up future movies, this causes events to be forced and feel unnatural.  

2. It's not a TV show, it's a very long movie sliced into six pieces -- the cadences are all off.  The final episode was jarringly structured, it seemed to be missing an act somewhere.

3. Most importantly, the main characters are still not leads and the actors portraying them are not the charismatic ones with perfect comic timing that we have come to expect from Marvel.  The standout performance was from Daniel Bruhl as Zemo. 

The upcoming Loki has Tom Hiddleston and Owen Wilson, so #3 should not be a problem.  We'll see if they sort out the rest.

Aside:  I've been spot binging a couple of old shows: Made Men and Sopranos. It's amazing how fast and far TV has fallen.  We used to have Sopranos, The Wire, and Deadwood, all going at the same time.  Now we can't even have a third season of Lodge 49, we're waiting forever for the final Better Call Saul, and we're reduced to hoping a Marvel show will at least be reasonably entertaining.  Probably time to go back to reading.

The Month That Was - March 2021

Looks like I'm going to survive my 60th winter.  I had a nice break with a two stop trip -- Texas and Florida -- and I am itching to get more travelling done this year. Vegas is re-opening, there are some new properties, and it's been years since my last visit.  And it's been decades since the last time I could say it's been years since I've been to Vegas.  I miss hiking and road tripping out west.  I will be getting back to Mackinac Island at least twice this year for certain.

Under the heading of Lucky Me, you may remember that I have been participating in the AstraZeneca vaccine trial.  I had a ⅔ chance of being vaccinated and a ⅓ chance of getting a placebo.  With the wide availability of vaccines, they are now unblinding participants so they know whether they need to get a vaccine.  Turns out I got the active vaccine.  I've been vaccinated since January.  

In any event, here's to Spring and putting a lot of evil crap behind us.  

[Covid19] Coronatime, Month 13

[TV] WandaVision

[Ann Arbor] Trippin' Ann Arbor

[Covid19] Coronatime, Month 13

One year on and it seems like we are approaching the finish line.  In theory, all adults will be vaccine eligible by the time you read this.  Texas lifted all restrictions at the beginning of the month, although I visited Texas this month and that has had little effect because county restrictions are still in place. I recently discovered I have been vaccinated since January as part of the AstraZeneca trial.  (AZ is pretty much irrelevant in the U.S. at this point, having been delayed long enough that it's impact will be small once approved.  A shame. It has been approved in 15 countries and could have saved tens of thousands of lives in the U.S. if our bureaucracy was slightly less incompetent.) It might be worth looking back a year.

At the outset, I was in pretty much the same position I am now -- that is to say, lucky.  I recall stressing greatly over the plunge in the value of my retirement savings, being as close to using it as I am.  That turned around quickly and decisively.  I made a smooth transition to working from home. For a few weeks we all couldn't get toilet paper, but I buy in bulk and was stocked up until it returned to the shelves. The biggest problem for me was the gyms were closed, but it was Spring and outdoor activities were findable.  Like I said, lucky.  With a capital L.

As far as trying to guess what the future held, I was hit or miss.  I went through some simple calcs and came to the conclusion that we were looking at 400k U.S. deaths, which was a low  -- we are over 500k now.  I was not optimistic about finding a vaccine quickly, noting that there had never been a coronavirus vaccine before. I suspected our big advances would be in treatment and mitigation. I was right about treatment and mitigation, but wrong about the vaccine.  I would not have guessed that our sclerotic bureaucracy would have roadblocked vaccines, but I should have, being familiar with sclerotic bureaucracies.

I rightly pointed out that the virus did not respect jurisdictional boundaries and that different experiences and policies in bordering states and counties will be a source of friction.  I know plenty of folks in lower Michigan were regularly venturing into Ohio and Indiana where bars and restaurants were open.  (Indiana had some fun with that.) I openly wondered how we would get back to normal. Looks like Texas and Florida are leading the way there, eventually enabling the more cautious States.

Now it looks like vaccines will be available to everyone in April. Maybe by high summer the whole country will be back to normal.  That'll be nice.

One thing that should (but may not) come out of this is a review of why we didn't get drugs approved more quickly.  We could have had a vaccine months earlier than we did.  We could have had post-infection treatment drugs and therapies months sooner than we did.  We never even considered variolation which we could have started right away.  In fact, it seems this virus was tailor-made for variolation and challenge trials considering there was a majority cohort that was not in danger of death or hospitalization.  We need a deep, deep dive into evaluating the lockdowns. Not just did they help or not, but were they cost effective.  In the future, surgical lockdowns based on known effectiveness would be enormously beneficial in avoiding economic disasters. All that is asking too much of mere humans, I know. I suspect we will learn and adopt one lesson for every ten we discover.

One final prediction from a year ago:

Many people are looking to the 1918 flu pandemic as a comparable. I don't know how accurate that is. It's a very different world. But I will point out that what followed that plague was 9 years of one of the greatest booms in history called The Roaring Twenties. That roar went far beyond just the economy. Once we get through this, things could get lit up in here, is what I'm saying.

I'm sticking by this one.  I predict the madness of life will be ratcheted up during the decade.  You may fear it now, but you'll regret it if you don't enjoy it. 

Addendum: If you really want to draw conclusions about what worked and what didn't over the last year, you can start with this excellent timeline of events.

[TV] Wandavision

Wandavision just finished so it's time for the airing of grievances (I got a lot of problems with you people!).  Overall it was a mess, but with some key redeeming qualities that made it worthwhile.

Let's start with the Good.  

• Marvel took a chance.  They did something out-of-the-box creative and it worked. Tumbling through the decades in sitcoms was fun and clever and done very skillfully.  It even got a well motivated cause.  Given their unprecedented success, it would have been very easy for Marvel, and their Disney overlords, to just do the same thing over and over, but they broke the mold (at first).  This bodes well.

• There were flashes of really intelligent writing, mostly concerning Vision. There was a wonderful line about grief...I think it was "What is grief but the persistence of love?" And then there was the whole Theseus' Ship allegory.  At least one person in the writer's room was trying to reach a stretch goal.

What went wrong?  So many things.

• Hand-wavy, contrived powers. I'm still not clear on the actual abilities of the various super-powered characters in this.  One of the key advantages early Marvel had was, once you suspend your disbelief in superheroes, there was a cogent hierarchy of relative powers.  That has withered over the years, but here it seems like anyone can be as strong or as weak as they need to be for the plotline.  (I admit this is a bit of a geeky critique.)

• Blunt, poorly integrated MCU service.  A lot of what went on here had little or no development but simply occurred to forward the planned MCU narrative for the future. I understand the need for this, but it's not an excuse for jarring the show.  Example: We got a full two-and-a-half hour, four-star movie to introduce Vision.  We got about fifteen minutes of b-story to introduce White Vision and then he vanished after a quick fight, presumably because he is needed for something upcoming.

• Too cute fan teases.  Any interviews with cast and crew always contained allusions to big surprises.  None panned out. Expectations were dashed rather than fulfilled (Chekov's gun unfired).  A single exception: The dick joke.  Which wasn't funny. 

• A disastrous finale. The finale was worthy of Netflix Marvel. Some of that was due to Covid and them not having the time or people necessary to do what they wanted, but I can't imagine what they would have done to save it or why they just didn;t delay it to get what they wanted.

• The biggest issue: neither of the main characters are worth the spotlight. The ultimate problem is that neither Wanda nor Vision can carry the lead.  They were fine as side players in the Avengers, but ultimately Wandavision was in dire need of one of the more charismatic characters played by one of the perfectly casted actors with exceptional comic timing that characterized the films.  The new superhero they added, Monica Rambeau, is not a lead either.  The most vibrant characters were Jimmy Woo (Randall Park from Ant-Man) and Darcy Lewis (Kat Denning from Thor) and they were given mere seconds of airtime in the disaster last episode.

It is not unexpected for Marvel to fall.  It had to happen. A dozen years of pretty much non-stop five-star movies was a remarkable achievement but to expect it to continue at that level is delusional.  It's now a question of how deep the fall will go.  By the time we are done with the follow up series (Falcon and The Winter Soldier, Loki) we'll have a good idea.

[Ann Arbor] Trippin' Ann Arbor

In a development that surprised nobody, The People's Republic of Ann Arbor has effectively decriminalized plant-based hallucinogens.  The only surprising thing is that they were beaten to the punch by Denver in this regard.  "Decriminalize" is this case means "authorities won’t investigate and arrest anyone for planting, cultivating, buying, transporting, distributing, engaging in practices with or possessing 'entheogenic plants' or plant compounds."  Conspicuous by its absence in that list is "selling".

This is the natural follow up to the legalization of Marijuana that has been slowly sweeping the country of which Ann Arbor was in the forefront.  For years Ann Arbor had a famed $5 pot law.  Since 1971 possession of marijuana (in small amounts) was subject to a $5 fine.  Ann Arbor was (is) also home to the Hash Bash -- a big rally in support of legalization of weed -- since 1972.  Ann Arbor District Library has a good quick summary of the local weed lore.  Naturally, once legality came, Ann Arbor had five dispensaries up and running within days and folks coming into town from far and wide.

And now we've started down a similar path with hallucinogens.  Which is fine; recent research has demonstrated some solid medical use for hallucinogens including as a treatment for depression, and anyway, if you want to kick back in the evening and chase the white rabbit down the hole, who am I to gainsay you?

I am actually of the opinion that most drugs should be decriminalized.  Opiates are illegal and they have taken over entire communities, so what exactly do we think we are stopping. I would even be OK with cocaine being legal (although I am less sure about its derivatives and various amphetamines).  People who want to mess themselves up will find a way, even if it's sniffing glue or inhaling nitrous oxide.  Use does sometimes lead to bad behavior, but illegality creates a lot more bad behavior than it prevents. I understand that is not a new idea and that there are probably many good counter arguments.

In any event, I'm glad no one is getting tossed in jail for going on a long strange trip.  Although I don't know that anyone was.  I have never heard of a SWAT team called in based on a tip that someone was harboring magic mushrooms.

All this left me with two questions:

• Will there even be a Hash Bash this year?  Answer: It's virtual.  With guest speakers including the Governor and Attorney General.  When the mainstream gets weird, the weird go mainstream.  Although there is someone who plans on arranging a live protest, given legalization there really is not much to protest.  What was that about history repeating itself as farce? (Follow up: After I wrote this, the live Hash Bash actually occurred.)
• If possession and usage of hallucinogens is decriminalized, but not their sale, how do you get them?  At least one person is selling them anyway.  That's risky.  A more clever strategy comes from Maine, where pot is decriminalized (but not legalized) similar to hallucinogens in Ann Arbor.  You just pay someone to find your "lost" drugs 
  

The new Roaring Twenties is well under way.

The Month That Was - February 2021

We got a real winter this month.  I ran the snowblower.  I shivered and bundled up.  Fortunately, unlike my friends in Texas, we are well hardened against this sort of weather.

I have slowly gotten back to my manuscript.  I'm in an editing round, but as I plow through it, it is looking very close to done.  I am slowly and carefully beginning to nurture thoughts of publishing it, but it's too soon to discuss in detail, although I will say I intentionally left the door open for a sequel.

Coming next month, Spring lawn preparation begins.

[Covid19] Coronatime, Month 12

[Good Links] Astral Codex Ten

[Movies] Flick Check: Round Up

[TV] The Cord is Cut

[Covid19] Coronatime, Month 12

After a year, we seem to have entered a weird state of stasis.  Deaths and infections have plunged back to summer levels.  Here in Michigan we are allowed to dine-in again, but with a restriction of 25% capacity [[note: just before I posted this, the capacity limit was raised to 50%]].  Some restaurants haven't reopened yet, perhaps feeling there is no profit at operating at that level, or perhaps unable to find labor thanks to the fat relief checks, or rumors thereof, going around. None of the fast food shops around me have opened their lobbies, and all restaurants have big ol' Help Needed signs out front. (Interestingly, every State bordering us has allowed full capacity dine-in.)  

Aside about capacity: If a restaurant is restricted to 25% capacity what does that mean?  25% of the number of seats you normally have?  25% of the capacity set by the fire marshal?  Those could be hugely different numbers.  I understand these are not supposed to be hard and fast counts, they are just supposed to be numbers that will cause you to reduce contact by an amount that effectively discourages transmission. But if that's the case you need to allow a lot of latitude in whom you penalize.

We are all either used to wearing our masks or are of the small percentage who refuse. Either way, nobody's behavior on that front is likely to change greatly. 

Vaccines are dribbling out, but we seem to have done nothing to speed up our bureaucracy in an effort to save more lives.  The AstraZeneca vaccine, in use for months in the UK and India, just approved by Canada, with a factory full of doses ready to ship in Baltimore, has yet to be approved and no one seems to be in a hurry.  Were I a screeching, news channel talking head I would be howling about how this is killing people. (God bless Alex Tabarrok at Marginal Revolution who has been relentless in pointing out the mortal foolishness of this.) 

The latest example of this is the "first dose first" movement.  Already in place in the UK, "first dose first" is a response to the fact that while a single dose of a two dose vaccine is slightly less effective at preventing infection than the full two doses, it is almost universally effective at reducing severity of an infection to non-life threatening levels.  As such, if your goal is to save lives, it's what you want to do -- get more people one dose rather than a smaller number with two doses.  Nobody -- not the FDA, not the States -- seems even mildly interested in this.

Like I said: Stasis. Status quo. Shrug.  I guess we'll get to the end of the pandemic at a stroll instead of a sprint.

[Good Links] Astral Codex Ten

Scott Alexander is back and it was quite a dramatic return.  The NYT hit piece that caused his disappearance was finally published. I won't link it, but here is his rebuttal.  I love reading Scott's essays, including the medical/psychiatric wonkery that he explains so well that even I can follow.  If there was someone who was a follower of traditional media and tropes and began to search for sources of a deeper understanding of things, I would start them off by pointing them to Scott.  

A couple of other interesting sources are David Perrell and Gwern Branwen. They do a great  job of gathering a broad swath of interesting, if occasionally esoteric, writings from around the web, in addition to their own original content.  The downside to going down this rabbit hole is that you might lose some of your ability to bond and communicate with your mainstream/clickbait reading friends.  

Scott, like most thoughtful web writers, has gone to substack.com, a service designed to let the best long form writers not only write, but get paid.  And do it with a certain confidence that they will not be de-platformed for their views.  Most of the writers there have both free and paid options to get their content. I suspect, more and more, the free stuff will drift away, especially the key content, and we'll start having to pay for a steady stream of quality content.  I also suspect that at some point substack will figure out a method for bundling content so folks aren't trying to manage dozens of subscriptions to their favorite writers.

They could call these bundles...wait for it…

Magazines.

For now there is good free content.  It's interesting to note the different ways we are now trying to recreate the blog and forum experience of the turn of the century web through sites like substack or Medium or just through tweetstorms and facebook groups and subreddits.  Could it be that the snapchat/tiktok generation is beginning to mature and looking for something more substantive?

But.  The topic was Astral Codex Ten.  It's very very much worth your time.

[Movies] Flick Check: Round Up

I had given up on general movie watching, thinking TV series had taken over, but TV quality has taken a nosedive and I've stumbled on some good flicks.  I believe anyone would enjoy watching any of these. 

Vast of Night -- From a first time director that caught the eye of a lot of people.  It's an alien visitation story, low-budget, Twilight Zone-ish, but took chances and ended up a very clever bit of filmmaking.  By "chances'' I mean direct and indirect references to black and white tv shows of the late fifties, extended blackout moments, and a striking 10-minute tracking shot.  It has a certain amateurish feel which is not only appropriate for the genre but also part of its charm.  Also great performance from lead actress Sierra McCormick. 

Into the Spiderverse -- Yeah, I finally got around to watching this.  It's very skillfully done.  Sharp dialogue, with heart and humor.  The plot is pure formula but not in a bad way. My problem is that I simply cannot connect with animated films.  I don't think I ever have -- even as a child.  I can't remember an animated film from my youth that left an impression. I remember Saturday morning cartoons.  Even today I love Archer, the first season of Family Guy, a number of South Park episodes -- maybe it's when animation becomes a full length movie giving it the pretense of drama… I don't know.  Spiderverse is a good film. I think if it had been live action I would have liked it.

Hunt for The Wilderpeople -- A Taika Waititi gem.  Sam Neill and the fat kid with a splash of diabetes from Deadpool2 go on the run in the wilds of New Zealand.  I don't know how anyone can write comedy in the soul-crushing, fun-hating, depressing bureaucracy we call the entertainment industry today, but Taika manages it consistently.  Bless him. He does that thing he does where he takes tragedy and swamps it with gentle humor without denying it.  This movie is a delight.

[TV] The Cord is Cut

Well, I bit the bullet and killed the cable.  I am pretty sure I have either had a cable subscription or access to one since somewhere around 1980, so let's call it 40 years.  Yeah, it was a big step for me.  Ridiculously so -- it's just TV after all.  I should spend more time reading and writing, right?

So now it's streaming exclusively for me.  My paid subscriptions are as follows:

• Netflix

• HBOMax

• Disney+

• Hulu (ad supported)

• Amazon (as a prime member)

• Sling Blue (live tv)

I spent a fair amount of time researching the live TV options.  Sling was really the cheapest and it had all the channels I might watch: AMC (for Better Call Saul), TBS/TNT/USA for general entertainment, NBCsn for NHL and the oddball sports I like -- Tour de France, etc.  (I read that NBCsn is now going away.  Sad.)

Sling, like most, has DVR options with 50 hours included which is plenty for me.  It is very flexible with add-on packages.  The guide is disappointingly barebones, though.  Show descriptions are minimal and multi-click to access.  No preview; I kind of miss being able to watch what I had on in a box in the corner while I surf for my options.  The real convenience I'll miss is being about to switch quickly between two shows (using a "last" button).  As far as I know, no live TV streaming service provides that yet.

However, the single greatest benefit to cutting the cord, apart from saving over $100 per month, is being able to manage my viewing options instantly on the web. Killing Spectrum cable, involved 25 minutes on hold, another 20 minutes in discussion with one of their reps who was trying to keep me, then hauling my cable boxes to the UPS store to ship back to Spectrum. It didn't take more than five minutes to sign up for Sling and be watching.  And if I change my mind and want to try something else, it'll probably just be another 5 minutes of clicking.  And in truth, I think Spectrum realizes that they have no shot at keeping cable vital.  While they did try to save me, they never offered me huge discounts on bundles like the previous times I threatened to leave. They seem to be much more focused on their new wireless service than anything else.  I think the writing on the wall has been read.  Even by me, after 40 years.

The Month That Was - January 2021

I have no actual New Year's resolutions.  If there are goals that need to be set, I hope I wouldn't wait for a specific date to set them.  Just start right away.  I do have what I refer to as New Year's resolutions, but they are really just life guidelines. 

1. Enhance the lives of the people I care about whenever possible.

2. Fight sloth (the Deadly Sin, not the adorable forest creature)

I have had the same ones for years and I see no reason to change. I continue to do pretty well on the first one, I think.  Less so on #2.

One thing that does have to change is that I wrote virtually zero fiction last year.  I found out how deeply entwined my writing was with my daily habits. It is entirely psychological.  Nothing stops me from grabbing my notebook and sitting down and writing, but I had a certain place and certain times when I did that, and I was unable to get beyond the disruption of losing that thanks to the lockdowns.  I am ashamed of this.  I see it as a severe weakness.  When I think about it I despair of ever finishing my current project which makes me dodge it even more.  I must break this cycle.

Per current forecasts, we are facing an especially cold, and probably snowy, February. Joy. I need to head south.

[Covid19, Rant] Coronatime, Month 11

[Rant] You Are Getting Sleepy

[TV]Toob Notes

[Rant, Covid19] Coronatime, Month 11

We'll start out with this assessment of herd immunity, suggesting that the end might actually be in sight. That's not from some agenda-driven crank, the guy behind it is legit.  The upshot is the expectation is that herd immunity will likely be achieved by July/August.  There are, of course, wild cards: his herd immunity target of 75% may be low, and there are new strains of the virus which may react differently to vaccines and such, but I'm comfortable with this as my working expectation.

More concerning to me is the abysmal process of getting vaccines and treatments approved and distributed. From the get-go our inability to alter our rigid thinking or resist our entrenched bureaucracy has cost way more lives than any lockdowns have saved.  Compared to the finger-pointing and righteous screeching about masks that I have seen all over social media, there seems to be little concern about this among everyday people. Now I shall get oblique.

I am fond of saying the world has gotten better in my lifetime and likely continues to do so, but it is a painful, chaotic process of ten steps forward and nine steps back.  Also, it's non-linear, non-sequential.  There is no one series of steps of which on average 10 are forward and 9 are back.  There are steps happening all the time, everywhere, often unseen.  This means the progress is happening in a world of constant upheaval.  Furthermore, if your mental time frame or event set happens to contain more steps back than steps forward, you can easily fall into the belief that the world is degrading. Once you have adopted a belief, as we all know, our cognitive biases burst into action to prevent it from changing at all costs.

Over the course of my lifetime, and probably starting well before, the world has gotten safer.  I'm not speaking of crime, but speaking of overall safety -- accident prevention, health concerns, etc. We have built up a huge set of guidelines and processes, often with the force of law, to do this. This includes consumer goods having an enormous number of safety tests to pass; drugs have gotten special scrutiny and control.  Behavioral guidelines have been installed and are increasingly enforced by technological innovation--the primary focus here being auto traffic. And when there isn't an institution to enforce a specific rule, liability and tort law has bent all our activities to be biased toward caution.  These things can spiral into absurdity and accusations of nanny-statism and fear-mongering follow on, often well-founded, but on balance, I am going to say this is a step forward.  As a rule of thumb, not being in peril is better than being in peril, especially mortal peril.

But then there's the step back.  When a situation came along and the very institutions and laws that we built to protect started working against us, we didn't know what to do.  Put it this way, can you imagine someone in 1918, with the flu epidemic raging, being told that there are great treatments and vaccines available that seem to work really well and that other countries have implemented them with good results, but we are going to have to wait months (or years) to try them because we can't change the rules, and even if they were available we still have to make sure that certain groups of people get them in a certain order, even if that means throwing some away?  1918-guy may have been a barbarian who kicked his children out the door in the morning to fend for themselves until dinner time, but I doubt he would have stood for that.  In fact, it would be so unimaginable to his time and place that it never would have happened to begin with.

We've gained a safer, more secure, less traumatic day-to-day life through lots of adaptation and innovation and struggle over the past decades, but this is what we've lost.  We are facing a horrible situation that 1918-guy couldn't even conceive of, and we just shrug at the blank-faced bureaucracy that's empowering it.  Thousands continue to die, while we are content to pat ourselves on the back for shaming a small percentage of people not wearing masks. 

This is one of those data sets where the steps back outweigh the steps forward.  Be careful of the beliefs it spawns.    

Important Note: I am in the Phase III trial for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine.  I have received my vaccination, which is 66.67% likely to be a vaccine and 33.33% likely to be a placebo.  This vaccine has been approved for use in the UK, the EU, and India.  There is a factory in Baltimore that is cranked up and ready to produce this vaccine at a prodigious rate.  Yet as near as I can tell we are still weeks away from approval here. With millions of people getting the vaccine across the world, it's a pretty safe bet that nothing terrible is going to happen.  This is the perfect example of what I am talking about above. We cannot seem to set aside our dedication to bureaucratic processes even though people are dying by the thousands every day.

[Rant] You Are Getting Sleepy

I am not sleeping well.  This has happened periodically throughout my life, but with increasing frequency.  It usually takes the form of falling asleep at a reasonable hour, waking anywhere between 1:00 to 3:00AM, then being unable to return to sleep until shortly before my alarm is about to go off.  The end result is I am trying to get by on 2 or 3 hours of fitful sleep per night.  

I am fervently resisting any chemical assistance since I fear it will impede whatever natural adaptations my body or mind might make otherwise (this may be erroneous thinking on my part). The thing is, when you reach a certain age, you begin to experience what are irreversible degradations anyway.  The worry about impeding your body from adapting becomes less of a concern because in many cases, your body has given up adapting.  Ingesting various chemicals becomes a question of extending a good quality of life for as long as you can. 

But I'm not there with respect to sleep yet.  My current thinking is that while nothing particularly urgent is bothering me, there are big questions lingering in my near future as I barrel towards retirement and senior citizenship and, with nothing but my own thoughts to keep me company in bed, these are agitating my mind, mostly subconsciously.  At whatever point in the next few years I find those questions resolved, if I still have trouble sleeping then it's pills for me until the end of the line.  For now, I'll only take the softest of sleep aids and only in the direst of circumstances.

The related topic I wanted to touch on is my dreams.  I cannot tell you a single dream I have had in my life.  Not one.  Literally every dream I have ever had has vanished from my memory.  Oh, I remember that I had a dream; I sometimes remember a detail or two for a few seconds after I wake up but then any images simply vaporize. It's a very strange experience, but as far as I know it has had no deleterious effect on me.

Of late however, there has been a change.  I still can't recall any images or details of my dreams, but I can recall a theme.  This is even stranger.  So while any details still vaporize I'm left with an impression of the big picture plot. And, though the setting changes, that plot always involves me needing to complete some task or activity and never being able to. Maybe I'm trying to drive somewhere where someone is waiting and I keep running into traffic or have an engine failure -- every issue gets resolved and then another pops up with the result being I wake up with the task undone.

It is just the oddest thing.  I cannot recall any images or details, but I know the plot and theme.  I know it starts out with an innocuous task to complete and spirals into chaos and frustration, the tasks never being completed.  But I can't recall the specific tasks, the specific interruptions, or any people, places, or things.  It's like a weird form of mental illness.  There are people who can't remember faces -- they know who the people in their lives are, they see them every day, know their personal history with them, but for some bizarre reason of mental wiring, they can never recall their faces.  In a small way, I now know what that feels like.  I know what happens in my dreams, but I can't hold on to an image of it.

All this is apropos of nothing in particular and it's unlike me to share this sort of thing. I suppose if I ever find myself completely going off the rails into madness, this might be a clue to where it started.