[Cars] Whatever Happened to Ten Years Ago

Sometimes I have good timing -- I bought my house at the absolute bottom of the market in 2010. Sometimes I don't -- I bought southern headquarters near the top.  Regarding cars, it looks like my timing is bad again.  The good ol' Acura (2014 TL) is still driving strong, but I have reached the 9 years / 170k mile point whence I traditionally buy a new car.  Sadly the auto market right now is in complete chaos.  

Firstly, prices are outrageous. To give you some idea, my car was a year old with 15k miles when I bought it.  I don't remember the exact figure, but it ended up around $25k.  The equivalent car now would be a 2022 Acura TLX.  That car would run me about $35k.  Now truly I can't complain too much about that because it approximately corresponds to the overall rate of inflation but, damn.  That's a big chunk of change. I think I'm outraged because between the time I sold my last Camry and bought the TL inflation was about zero I was able to move into the near-luxury market for a tiny premium.

Laugh if you must but, for reasons I won't go into, my ideal car at the moment is a 2023 Toyota Sienna hybrid.  I could get a used one for just shy of 50k.  Assuming I get 10k for my trade in, that's 40 Large out of pocket.  For a minivan.  Never have I ever pictured that happening. 

All this started with Covid and famed supply chain issues.  Autos only just started to recover, and then only some makers. The U.S. big three are in good shape inventory-wise, Germans and Koreans are close to recovering, but the big two Japanese are still in short supply -- especially Toyota.  Now there is no telling what is going to be the effect of the UAW strike, but it's hard to see it not constraining supply even more.

Bottom line: I think the ol' Acura may have to last me another year, which is a larger ask than it would have been previously, given that I am pouring miles on it going back and forth to southern headquarters multiple times per year.  Still it's holding up well and generally being a good advertisement for buying another Acura.  Too bad they don't make a minivan.

BTW, one of the best sources for info about the back and forth of the auto retail trade is Car Dealership Guy.  Interesting podcast, email sub, and twitter feed. You can really get the detailed low down of what's going on in the industry.  A fascinating behind the scenes.  One point he makes, auto loans are in meltdown.  Non-performing loans are at record levels and numerous leaders have left the market.  You would think that the inability to get a loan would lower demand and prices would react, and while that may be happening, it's happening very slowly as people seem to be resigned to accepting older cars for price reasons and because pretty much all cars are a good deal more durable than they used to be.  If you have even a passing interest in market economics, it's a very cool follow.