One of the interesting developments of the pandemic is the new acceptance level for remote work. This has the potential to have a huge effect on the geographics. Take NYC for example. It is a huge financial and real estate center and a high visibility locale for company headquarters. Another way of saying that is there a lot of people in offices and cube farms working on their computers and having meetings. Well I can now work on my computer and meet with you from pretty much anywhere in the world. This has been the case for a while but there was huge uncertainty about how effective and productive we would be in the absence of face-to-face contact. After months of having been forced to work remotely general consensus is that it can be very effective and productive. Personally, I remain suspicious that there may be problems yet to be discovered. I find it works well when I have a pre-existing real world relationship, less well when I do not.
The other thing folks will have discovered is that it can be a lot cheaper. If I really need an NYC address, it's a lot cheaper to hang a shingle somewhere and have my employees work from their basements in a Smalltown, Midwest than lease five floors of an office building in Manhattan. Or maintain a sprawling modern campus in Silicon Valley for that matter.
The social outcomes of all this I will leave for another time. The question I'm posing is given you can work from anywhere now, where should you live?
If you are young and ambitious, I still think there is value in living in an area filled with other young and ambitious people. The opportunity to do real-life socializing and networking with like-minded people still has value. The aforementioned Silicon Valley is the former paradigm for this. Silicon Valley is, however, too damn expensive and has probably peaked in that sense. My first suggestion is Texas. Texas is rising, and not just Austin. The Houston-Austin-San Antonio triangle is rapidly becoming the premier commercial heart of the country. Having spent some time there, I can tell you that the growth of the area is astounding, and that they are handling it infrastructure-wise much better than many other places. If I was a recent college grad, that's where I would go. Other similar choices would be the Research Triangle in North Carolina, and western cities of Denver, Phoenix, and Las Vegas.
What if you are older and settled into your career and industry? The palette for this group is wider and more diverse. Quality of life becomes more important. You know all those articles about "The Best Places to Live"? Well you can actually consider some of these. Here you can look for the paradigmatic low crime/good schools area and match it with your leisure activities -- near water, in the mountains, where there are great restaurants, entertainment, weather, political atmosphere, etc. I would bet that in most cases, unless you're trying to make a socio-political point, this will not be a big city. Check out this list of the fastest growing cities in the U.S. It is not surprisingly Texas-heavy, but note that 2 of the top 10 are in Idaho. I have only been to Idaho once, for the eclipse, and I am not familiar with the two names on the list, but I can verify that Ketchum, where I stayed, and its funky neighbor over the mountain, Stanley, would be terrific places to live (at least in the warm months). You can bet that these sorts of cities will grow faster because you no longer have to commit to leaving the rat race to live there; you can keep in touch with the other rats via your basement office.
Although I am barreling ever more quickly to retirement, I find myself in exactly this situation. I am fortunate in that I love where I live (Dexter, MI) and wouldn't think twice about recommending it (again, mind your tolerance for cold winters). In fact, there are any number of small towns peppered along the Great Lakes coast that would be wonderful for quality of life.
The other region I am familiar with is the desert West. Moab, UT would be a great place, economically insulated as it is by the surrounding National Parks. St. George, UT for similar reasons along with its proximity to Vegas. Many places in Utah would fit the bill -- like Idaho, Utah should benefit from all this.
The Florida Gulf, and to some extent the areas surrounding Orlando have good qualities but there are the wild cards of tourists and retirees that can disrupt the steadiness of things at times. Also the summer heat takes some getting used to.
It's going to be fascinating to watch the shifts in geographic demography in the upcoming years.
Retirement locales are another matter entirely. Low taxes and good health infrastructure are key attributes in this case. That's why I've zeroed in on Florida. But I don't see that changing due to the increase in remote work.
I mentioned before that when we emerge from the pandemic we may find ourselves in a new Roaring Twenties. One of the characteristics of it might be a realignment from city orientation to regional orientation; a move from the celebration of the intensity and conflict of urban life to the serenity and spirit of more open spaces. That'd be nice.
