Thursday, August 08, 2019

[Rant] The Mighty River

I continue to be fascinated, and occasionally amazed, by Amazon and the effect it's having on our lives. Amazon is more interesting than Google in that Google just deals in the ephemeral -- bits and pixels, information. If you want something in real life, something tactile -- an object -- then Amazon is your jam. Compared to that, Google has it easy.

The latest observation is how quickly Amazon became huge in a new space -- shipping -- once they decided they needed to do it themselves. In three years (a very short time) they went from zero to handling half their shipments themselves. I bet that in another three years, they are not only self-sufficient but offering shipping service to external customers, putting UPS, FedEX, and the Post Office at existential risk.

They have spawned a new nomad class -- folks who troll the country for deep discounted goods at brick-and-mortars, and then resell on Amazon for a small profit. This is a fascinating arbitrage; one wonders why these obscure or insolvent b-and-ms don't just list the goods on Amazon to begin with and capture the profit themselves. Which I suppose is just another angle on why they are going out of business in the first place.

Aside: Nomads are a breed apart -- whether it is for harvest work, or construction, or resort holiday work, or Amazon arbitrage -- there is a certain romanticism to travelling around to where the work is, taking whatever comes, leaving entanglements behind you. Anybody remember Then Came Bronson? Those who live the life lose any romantic notions fairly quickly, but often they stay at it, seduced by the sense detached freedom. Do a search on Van Life.

More interestingly, Zack Kanter deep dives into Amazon's remarkable success, why it's different from Walmart, and the core strategy that keeps it going. Hint: it's "customer focus", but not in the bland, droning way you hear the phrase used in standard corporate-speak. He also identifies a potential misstep. Very thought provoking.

Amazon continues to eat the world. One wonders how long it will last. If I had to predict, I would say at some point it gets large enough that it becomes a sort of post-modern East India Company, given tacit approval of the government to continue dominating as long as it continues to work for the greater benefit of the world. I'm good with that.