Ward, I'm Worried About the Vegas: Sshhh, don't tell anybody, but Vegas may have peaked. It is a fear I have. Tell me if I'm wrong.

The recent violence during the NBA All-Star game is really only one part of the concern. Oh it was bad. Shootings at strip clubs, a near riot at MGM, a brawl in a Wynn nightclub (Wynn, of all places!).

One of the key features of Vegas is that despite the Hieronymus Bosch-ian atmosphere, you feel safe there. You certainly can't go into a casino and cause trouble. It is not tolerated. Everything is monitored and security is everywhere. Yes, there is the occasional drunken idiot, but such situations are addressed swiftly and surely. Inside these casinos it is possible to indulge in just about any form of sin you want, provided to don't bother anybody else. Cross that line and you're out. It's really a remarkable thing, and worthy of an essay in and of itself.

Even outside on the Strip I have always felt pretty safe. I have walked the length of the Strip from Mandalay Bay to the Venetian at 3AM and not felt threatened at all. Safety is key to Vegas; it's what keeps average people coming back to sample the naughtiness. To be really successful, the naughtiness must be accessible to Mom and Pop, not just those who are bad-ass enough to survive. It is a perfect confluence of financial and moral priorities. That's why the shenanigans at the NBA All-Star game were so troubling. Bring that kind of thing to Houston or Atlanta and it's just another night. Not so in Vegas.

But that situation is easily remedied by simply not playing host to that event again. As long as things get back to normal I don't think the city will suffer. The long term trends that make me think Vegas has peaked are three-fold.

1. Infrastructure. McCarran Airport is completely out-gunned. Flying in on Northwest -- which lands at a midfield terminal requiring a shuttle ride to get to baggage claim -- I don't think I have ever waited less than 45 minutes to get my bags. A 45 minute wait for a cab into town is also a strong possibility. The security lines for flights back home are so long that where most airports suggest checking in 90 minutes early, at McCarran they recommend up to three hours. These huge delays essentially mean a dead day for travel on either end of trip. That's a big price to pay and there are no signs that it is being addressed.

Another thing that is very lacking in Vegas is mass transit. There is the monorail, which is inconvenient and limited. There are periodic threats to expand it all the way south to the airport and north to downtown, but don't hold your breath. I will admit they are doing a bit better here having implemented The Deuce, a well-run commuter bus service that runs up and down the Strip all the way to downtown.

But transportation needs to be a lot better. Getting visitors from their flights to their hotels and getting them around town should be top priority for the city. Orlando completely kicks Vegas' butt in this regard.

2. Macau. One thing that first timers to Vegas are often surprised by is the number of Asians gambling in Vegas. Not Asian-Americans, actual Asians from Asia. For a few years now, Vegas has benefited from a wave of Asian affluence that has translated to Asian high-rollers and Asian wannabe high-rollers flying across the Pacific and dropping piles of cash at Pai-Gow and such. Asian pop musicians regularly schedule shows in Vegas -- you'll see posters for them and say "Who?" It's been a huge inflow of cash for the city.

Now Macau (for the geographically challenged, that's in China, near Hong Kong) is billing itself as the new Vegas. In reality, it's not even close to that -- yet. But Wynn and MGM and others have properties opened there. More are sure to come. At some point it will necessarily eat into Vegas revenue. If you're an Asian gambler out for a few days of excitement, why fly all the way to Vegas when Macau is likely no more than a three or four hour flight? (Note to self: Time for a trip to Macau to check things out.)

3. Overbuilding The building boom in Vegas over the past decade has been like nothing the world has ever seen. And even now, there is no sign of it stopping. MGM is building something called City Center, which is an attempt to recreated Greenwich Village on the south Strip. It is an incredibly large project that will include hotels and clubs and shops. Not to be outdone, Harrah's/Caesar's has plans for something similar at mid-strip. Both companies have been buying up properties and scheduling renovations and re-workings in prep for an upcoming battle royale.

The two premier independent properties - The Venetian and Wynn - are building add-on properties to their existing enormous sites. The boom is steadily moving north, devouring what is left of the old rat pack properties and going full-on high-end all round.

It doesn't stop there. High-rise condo complexes are going up at an equally fast rate. And all this new building means construction jobs and service jobs, and all those new workers need to be housed and need grocery stores and car dealers and the various stuff of life to go with them. It has been a historic boom. You can check out Vegas Today and Tomorrow to get an overview.

But it is also possible that it has been a bubble. And if it is a bubble, the combination of loss of Asian business, insufficient infrastructure, and oversupply of building could bring about a very large pop. We don't know. I don't think there has ever been a test to see what the limits are of humanity's desire to sin in safety (which is the bottom line product of Vegas) but we may find out sooner rather than later.

And that's why I'm worried. It's also why, if you are one of the few who has never seen Vegas, you should go to see it soon, while it's at its (possible) peak. For the time being, it is something truly historic.

I should write up a newbie's guide to Vegas, shouldn't I? (No. No, I shouldn't. I should write fiction.)